The National League has something to prove, dismissing its status as mobiles in baseball’s classroom after getting schooled by the American League in the past two World Series. For those keeping score at home, the AL has produced back-to-back sweeps.
Consider 2006 as the “after” picture in a late-night infomercial. Health willing, Barry Bonds will pass Babe Ruth in career homers (likely insulting him as well), Roger Clemens will keep mocking history and the Mets will keep pace with the Yankees in New York’s back-page headlines.
The fearless (or foolish) prediction is that the Atlanta Braves’ magic-carpet ride will end, the Houston Astros will unseat the St. Louis Cardinals in their division and the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles will win their turf war against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.
NL WEST
(Predicted order of finish)
Los Angeles Dodgers (71-91 last season, fourth)
Notable additions: Rafael Furcal, ss; Nomar Garciaparra, 1b; Bill Mueller 3b; Kenny Lofton, cf; Sandy Alomar Jr., c; Danys Baez, rhp; Brett Tomko, rhp; Jae Seo, rhp; Grady Little, manager.
Key losses: Jim Tracy, manager; Milton Bradley, of; Jeff Weaver, rhp; Duaner Sanchez, rhp.
You grow, boy: Young catcher Dioner Navarro needs to improve in two areas: calling games, which pitchers privately groused about last year, and power, which he has displayed little of during his pro career.
Spring’s tall order: Getting everyone on the field without a doctor’s permission slip, namely closer Eric Gagne and potential 30-home run threat J.D. Drew. The Dodgers also need to find out if Tomko can replace Weaver, a notorious innings gobbler.
San Diego Padres (82-80, first)
Notable additions: Mike Cameron, cf; Vinny Castilla, 3b; Mike Piazza, c; Chris Young, rhp; Shawn Estes, lhp; Doug Mirabelli, c.
Key losses: Mark Loretta, 2b; Ramon Hernandez, c; Adam Eaton, rhp; Brian Lawrence, rhp; Akinoro Otsuka, rhp; Rudy Seanez, rhp; Chris Hammond, lhp; Joe Randa, 3b.
You grow, boy: Young morphed from the Princeton Project into an effective starter (12-7) last year for the Texas Rangers. For the Padres to repeat as division champs, they likely will need 15 wins from the 6-foot-10 former basketball player.
Spring’s tall order: The motto should be “Go for the Old!” The Padres could have as many as seven thirtysomething everyday position players, so managing their workload is critical. Finding suitable bullpen replacements to form the bridge to closer Trevor Hoffman will be high on the to-do list.
San Francisco Giants (75-87, third)
Notable additions: Matt Morris, rhp; Steve Finley, of; Steve Kline, lhp; Tim Worrell, rhp; Mark Sweeney, inf-of; Todd Greene, c; Jose Vizcaino, inf.
Key losses: Edgard Alfonso, 3b; Brett Tomko, rhp; J.T. Snow, 1b; LaTroy Hawkins, rhp; Scott Eyre, lhp.
You grow, boy: While the Giants repeatedly have traded prospects to quench a win-now thirst, they have a star in the making in 21-year-old starting pitcher Matt Cain. How quickly he develops confidence in his off-speed pitches will determine his growth chart.
Spring’s tall order: Figuring out a game plan to maximize the impact of Barry Bonds and Jason Schmidt. If both are healthy, the Giants could snare first place. If they aren’t, the Giants could contend for last place.
Arizona Diamondbacks (77-85, second)
Notable additions: Orlando Hernandez, rhp; Orlando Hudson, 2b; Johnny Estrada, c; Eric Byrnes, cf; Miguel Batista, rhp; Jason Grimsley, rhp; Luis Vizcaino, rhp; Terry Mulholland, lhp.
Key losses: Troy Glaus, 3b; Javier Vazquez, rhp; Tim Worrell, rhp; Shawn Estes, lhp.
You grow, boy: Conor Jackson, a sweet-swinging first baseman, must demonstrate the plate prowess that made him one of baseball’s top prospects to justify taking at-bats away from ageless Tony Clark.
Spring’s tall order: Two issues hang over the Diamondbacks. Can they generate enough power with Glaus gone? And will “El Duque” hold up to pitch at least 110 innings, providing much-needed leadership for a staff that’s dangerously thin after Brandon Webb? Having the guy that used to be Russ Ortiz walk into training camp sure wouldn’t hurt.
Colorado Rockies (67-95, fifth)
Notable additions: Jose Mesa, rhp; Ray King, lhp; Yorvit Torrealba, c; Eli Marrero, of-inf; Josh Wilson, inf; Tom Martin, lhp; Keiichi Yabu, rhp.
Key losses: Dustan Mohr, of; Todd Greene, c; Jamey Wright, rhp; Dan Miceli, rhp.
You grow, boy: Of the Rockies’ biggest questions, perhaps none looms larger than Brad Hawpe. Ideally, a right fielder playing half his games at Coors Field would reach 200 combined runs and RBIs. Hawpe, injured much of the second half, finished last season with 85.
Spring’s tall order: Developing trust in the starting pitchers so they have extended leashes when the season opens. Also finding a way to score runs, which starts with Cory Sullivan and Clint Barmes reaching base more often.
NL EAST
New York Mets (83-79, tied for third)
Notable additions: Carlos Delgado, 1b; Billy Wagner, lhp; Paul Lo Duca, c; Julio Franco, 1b; Duaner Sanchez, rhp.
Key losses: Kris Benson, rhp; Jae Seo, rhp; Mike Piazza, c; Mike Cameron, of.
You grow, boy: Aaron Heilman, a right-hander and former top pick from Notre Dame, made no secret of his desire to start. He will get that chance.
Spring’s tall order: Pedro Martinez’s health, Pedro Martinez’s health and – oh, yeah – Pedro Martinez’s health. He suffered through hip, shoulder and foot problems last season. If he’s not an ace, the Mets’ season could quickly disintegrate.
Atlanta Braves (90-72, first)
Notable additions: Edgar Renteria, ss; Todd Pratt, c; Oscar Villarreal, rhp; Wes Obermueller, rhp; Mike Remlinger, lhp; Roger McDowell, pitching coach.
Key losses: Rafael Furcal, ss; Julio Franco, 1b; Leo Mazonne, pitching coach.
You grow, boy: Catcher Brian McCann lived peacefully in Jeff Francoeur’s shadow. This season, he takes over as a full-time starter with a new pitching coach and questions about the health of starters John Smoltz and John Thomson.
Spring’s tall order: Somebody needs to take the ninth inning by the nape of the neck, with Chris Reitsma the favorite. He held the closer’s role briefly last year before melting. Thomson might be trade bait to get a closer.
Philadelphia Phillies (88-74, second)
Notable additions: Tom Gordon, rhp; Aaron Rowand, cf; Arthur Rhodes, lhp; Ryan Franklin, rhp; Abraham Nuñez, inf; Alex S. Gonzalez, inf; Pat Gillick, general manager.
Key losses: Jim Thome, 1b; Ugueth Urbina, rhp; Jason Michael, of; Ed Wade, general manager.
You grow, boy: Ryan Madson, 25, is a sleeper to make the transition from middle reliever to effective back-of-the-rotation starter.
Spring’s tall order: The rotation is ordinary, by Gillick’s admission. Getting back a strong Randy Wolf would be a big boost, and the continued maturation of slugger Ryan Howard could make fans quickly forget Thome.
Washington Nationals (81-81, fifth)
Notable additions: Alfonso Soriano, 2b; Brian Lawrence, rhp; Ramon Ortiz, rhp; Felix Rodriguez, rhp; Royce Clayton, inf; Robert Fick, inf; Marlon Anderson, inf; Michael Tucker, of.
Key losses: Vinny Castilla, 3b; Preston Wilson, of; Brad Wilkerson, of.
You grow, boy: Based on praise from general manager Jim Bowden, rookie third baseman Ryan Zimmerman should reserve part of spring training for writing his Hall of Fame induction speech. He has legitimate tools, now all he has to do – gulp – is live up to the hype.
Spring’s tall order: Figuring out the Soriano soap opera is imperative. The Nationals would like him to play in the outfield, perhaps throwing a long-term deal at the slugger to change his mind. Removing the uncertainty about stadium and ownership issues would stabilize the franchise.
Florida Marlins (83-79, tied for third)
Notable additions: Joe Borowski, rhp; Wes Helms, 3b; Hanley Ramirez, ss; Pokey Reese, inf; Joe Girardi, manager.
Key losses: Carlos Delgado, 1b; Luis Castillo, 2b; Alex Gonzalez, ss; Mike Lowell, 3b; Juan Pierre, of; Jeff Conine, of; Juan Encarnacion, of; Josh Beckett, rhp; A.J. Burnett, rhp; Todd Jones, rhp; Jack McKeon, manager.
You grow, boy: Ramirez long has been on the crest of baseball’s “next star” tidal wave. He will get an opportunity to prove himself in a pressure-free, expectation-void environment.
Spring’s tall order: Girardi, a former Rockies catcher in his first big-league managing gig, somehow must fill out a lineup, if not a roster, that includes just one everyday player from a year ago – moody Miguel Cabrera. Pity star pitcher Dontrelle Willis, one of baseball’s best personalities, for having to live through this “market correction.”
NL CENTRAL
Houston Astros (89-73, second)
Notable additions: Preston Wilson, cf; Trever Miller, lhp.
Key losses: Roger Clemens, rhp (until May 1 at least); Jose Vizcaino, inf.
You grow, boy: Jason Lane has a chance to be an offensive star. If he can jump to 30 home runs and 90 RBIs, it would form a nice punch with Wilson. The Astros need somebody to hit consistently with runners in scoring position.
Spring’s tall order: Resolving the ugly insurance case of Jeff Bagwell vs. the Astros. While his salary would be better reserved for Clemens, dumping Bagwell would create a reservoir of bad will. Clemens will remain a story until he officially returns.
St. Louis Cardinals (100-62, first)
Notable additions: Juan Encarnacion, of; Braden Looper, rhp; Sidney Ponson, rhp; Larry Bigbie, of; Aaron Miles, 2b; Junior Spivey, 2b; Gary Bennett, c; a new Busch Stadium.
Key losses: Matt Morris, rhp; Julian Tavarez, rhp; Reggie Sanders, of; Mark Grudzielanek, 2b; Larry Walker, of.
You grow, boy: In this case, it’s “you grow up, boy” – as it relates to the troubled Ponson. Released by the Orioles after repeated brushes with the law, Ponson will attempt to become veteran pitching coach Dave Duncan’s latest reclamation project.
Spring’s tall order: Who’s on second? Miles, Spivey and Hector Luna will compete in the Cardinals’ version of “American Idol,” with the last one standing to start on opening day. The Cardinals have received heavy criticism for signing cheaper players in the same year they are opening a new ballpark.
Chicago Cubs (79-83, fourth)
Notable additions: Juan Pierre, of; Jacque Jones, of; Scott Eyre, lhp; Bobby Howry, rhp; Wade Miller, rhp; Marquis Grissom, of.
Key losses: Jeromy Burnitz, of; Todd Hollandsworth, of; Corey Patterson, of.
You grow, boy: Ryan Dempster, a part-time Colorado resident, is funny enough to do stand-up. Nothing would make the Cubs happier than for him to provide stability as the closer, maximizing the potential of pricey acquisitions Eyre and Howry.
Spring’s tall order: Getting a read on Kerry Wood’s condition. Wood working back into shape as a reliever hasn’t been ruled out. For the Cubs to do anything but break hearts, Mark Prior has to be a Cy Young Award candidate and Pierre, a former Rockies center fielder, must channel his 2003 season with the Marlins.
Milwaukee Brewers (81-81, third)
Notable additions: Corey Koskie, 3b; Dan Kolb, rhp; Dave Bush, rhp.
Key loss: Lyle Overbay, 1b.
You grow, boy: Overbay was considered a luxury, someone keeping the seat warm for the industrial strength of Prince Fielder. Combined with Rickie Weeks, the Brewers have two of the most intriguing prospects in baseball playing side by side.
Spring’s tall order: Manager Ned Yost, who last season guided the Brewers to their first .500 finish since 1992, faces the delightful quandary of finding playing time for versatile Billy Hall, a player many contenders would love to have. Having Koskie rebound would help provide a cushion for what looks like the inevitable backslide season from Carlos Lee.
Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95, sixth)
Notable additions: Jeromy Burnitz, of; Sean Casey, 1b; Joe Randa, 3b; Roberto Hernandez, rhp; Damaso Marte, lhp; Jim Tracy, manager.
Key losses: Dave Williams, lhp; Tike Redman, of; Lloyd McClendon, manager.
You grow, boy: Catcher Ryan Doumit helped motivate the trade of veteran Jason Kendall. His ability to take over as the starter would ease concerns at a position that’s difficult for the Pirates to seriously address in free agency.
Spring’s tall order: After a mini-camp, the Pirates seem to be adjusting quickly to Tracy’s style and expectations. He didn’t leave the Dodgers to lose. Changing the culture won’t be easy. The Pirates haven’t had a winning season since 1992, when they had Barry Bonds.
Cincinnati Reds (73-89, fifth)
Notable additions: Dave Williams, lhp; Chris Hammond, lhp; Rick White, rhp; Tony Womack, 2b; Bob Castellini, owner.
Key losses: Sean Casey, 1b; Dan O’Brien, general manager.
You grow, boy: Third baseman Edwin Encarnacion labored through a typical rookie season, showing glimpses of power between egregious errors. Can he hold the position long enough to keep veteran Rich Aurilia out of the lineup?
Spring’s tall order: Finding a taker for starting pitcher Eric Milton would help clear payroll. He isn’t suited for Great American Ball Park. Perhaps including Austin Kearns in a deal could increase interest. Unclogging the overkill at second base is required with Aurilia, Womack and Ryan Freel all competing for playing time there.
