Tucson – Math refutes the myth.
Baseball relies heavily on axioms for explanations: Teams can’t win with kids up the middle, veterans are injury-prone, left-handed relievers rule late-inning matchups.
One of the more popular and loosely thrown around is that star hitters need lineup protection to excel. Barry Bonds, once backed by Benito Santiago, and Andruw Jones, who hit 51 home runs with Julio Franco or Adam LaRoche on deck last year, strain the credibility of that statement.
Then there are the Rockies. The statistics tell a revealing story about No. 3 hitter Todd Helton and cleanup man Matt Holliday. Simply put, the better Holliday is, the bigger year Helton will have.
“When we first faced Colorado, the game plan was clear: Don’t let Helton beat you,” said reliever Ray King, acquired from the Cardinals over the winter. “But as the year went on and Holliday started to establish himself, it was different.”
Where adjectives fail, numbers succeed in making King’s point.
In the first half of last season, Helton hit .135 (5-for-37) with 10 walks and five RBIs in 10 games with Holliday batting cleanup. After the all-star break, Helton hit .395 with 40 walks and 38 RBIs in 49 games.
Helton’s resurgence coincided with Holliday’s revival. As Holliday demanded respect, Helton was given more opportunities to hit, a plan the Rockies hope to duplicate this season.
“It only makes sense that teams would rather face me than Todd, a career (.337) hitter,” Holliday said. “I am sure they will make me prove myself again. It’s not disrespectful. I look forward to that challenge.”
Even though Holliday fared well in his 10-game cameo hitting fourth in the first half – a .333 average – the numbers lacked substance. He had only four RBIs, hardly a convincing argument for teams to pitch to Helton. In the second half, he evolved into an impact hitter, finishing second in the National League with 64 RBIs, including 48 as Helton’s running mate.
Manager Clint Hurdle admitted Thursday that Holliday hit fourth only because of attrition – there were few options after Preston Wilson was shipped to the Washington Nationals. But he added, “You don’t trip into those kind of numbers.”
Speaking from a pitcher’s point of view, Jason Jennings put it this way.
“If I know the guy on deck isn’t going to hurt me, why would I pitch to Todd?” Jennings explained. “Pitchers know the guys they have to be careful with. Holliday became that kind of hitter and gave Todd more opportunities with runners on base.”
Helton was a Holliday fan long before Holliday’s baseball card matched his muscular, 6-foot-4, 225-pound mystique. He cautioned that a cleanup hitter must prove himself over time. Still, his confidence in Holliday is palpable. This should prevent Helton from expanding his zone, a pitfall that sabotaged his own first half last season.
“I may be dumb, but I am not stupid,” Helton said. “The more I tried to do, the worse I did. Matt is a big, strong kid. He’s capable of putting up (big numbers).”
Added owner Dick Monfort, “Last spring training, Todd was hearing about Todd and the Toddlers all the time. He said it didn’t bother him, but I am sure he thought he had to get the key RBI every time. I don’t think that will happen again. He feels different about the players around him.”
Pressure is a concern for Holliday. April was especially cruel last year to the left fielder as he went without a homer. He regained his stroke before breaking his pinkie on June 9.
Now the hard part – proving he’s legit.
“I believe he is,” Giants catcher Todd Greene, a member of the Rockies the past two seasons, said. “He’s going to hit 40 home runs someday.”
Staff writer Troy E. Renck can be reached at 303-820-5447 or trenck@denverpost.com.
