Tucson – If it’s true you can’t love somebody else until you love yourself, the Rockies are marching toward a clean bill of mental health. The Rockies have been hugging all spring; public displays of affection that reflect wild optimism.
First baseman Todd Helton promises the team will be competitive. Manager Clint Hurdle insists his club has “no glaring weaknesses.” And owner Charlie Monfort predicts his Rockies, authors of five consecutive losing seasons and fresh off a 67-win season, will win the National League West.
“We have to have a lot of things go right, but I absolutely think that’s possible,” Monfort said.
Monfort writes the checks and is entitled to see the world through purple-tinted glasses. But first place? Is that realistic? Interested, The Denver Post surveyed writers, front-office executives, scouts, managers and players from around the league for their view of the Rockies.
Of the 45 people who offered a prediction, 28 picked the Rockies to finish last in the National League West, and the remaining tabbed them for fourth place.
“I have them at 71-91. They are too young to do anything else,” said Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, “but better days are ahead.”
Those in favor of fourth talked of the Rockies’ potential, particularly with Matt Holliday, and believe the team’s energy will allow them to overtake either the aging San Diego Padres or San Francisco Giants.
“I think the youth movement is going to start paying off,” said Joe Rutter of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “And I was encouraged by the way they finished the year in 2005.”
When told of Monfort’s fearless forecast, some were amused, with one scout blurting, “When he is going stop putting his foot in his mouth?”
Others were pleased, including erstwhile Rockie Dustan Mohr, who hit 17 home runs for Colorado last season.
“They have to say that. If they don’t, what do they give the fans to hold on to?” Mohr said. “It’s not likely. But I think it’s good because last year that’s one word I didn’t hear much around there – win. And that’s just being honest. Winning is an attitude, not a process. The first step is believing you can win.”
What makes this year different is that while most are picking the Rockies to sublet the basement again, almost everyone polled believes the club is improved and capable of hanging around for much of the summer in baseball’s weakest division.
Said Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin: “Colorado has closed the gap. You can no longer talk about four teams in this division. It’s certainly five teams now.”
The bullpen, fortified with veterans this offseason, was pegged as the primary reason for the optimism.
What to take from all this? Las Vegas provides a proper summary. When the betting line opened in February, Colorado was picked to finish last in the West with an over/under of 69 victories. The number inched up to 71 1/2 in three weeks. It might reach 73 by opening day.
It appears odds are that the Rockies will be better, but not a division title winner.
Powerball
For the Rockies to be contenders, they’ll have to hit the jackpot. Here’s a projection of what the Rockies need from their lineup to be a factor in the NL West:
20 stolen bases from CF Cory Sullivan
45 walks from free-swinging SS Clint Barmes
30 home runs from 1B Todd Helton
120 RBIs from cleanup hitter Matt Holliday
40 doubles from 3B Garrett Atkins
70 RBIs from RF Brad Hawpe
15 home runs from 2B Luis Gonzalez
.260 average from C Danny Ardoin
18 victories from ace-in-waiting Aaron Cook
15 wins from opening-day starter Jason Jennings
40 saves from closer Brian Fuentes
TEAM NUMBERS
48 wins at Coors Field to even begin to flirt with a winning record
0 days on the disabled list for Barmes, Helton, Atkins and Holliday
20 appearances from Chin-Hui Tsao, providing late-inning surge for bullpen
1 trade at the July 31 deadline to get better and not dump salary
– Patrick Saunders, Troy E. Renck
