Mexico City – The leftist who once held a 10-point lead has dropped to second place behind the conservative ruling-party candidate in polls ahead of Mexico’s July 2 presidential race. He’s blaming the media and pollsters – rather than his own confrontational style – for the slide.
That defiance is true to form for Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a man idolized by many poor Mexicans and feared by many of the rich.
A poll published Wednesday by the newspaper Reforma showed Lopez Obrador trailing ruling-party candidate Felipe Calderon, 40 percent to 33 percent – the first time a major poll has shown somebody with a statistically significant lead over Lopez Obrador.
In March, Lopez Obrador led Calderon 41 percent to 31 percent.
Roberto Madrazo, of the former ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, was third in Wednesday’s poll with 22 percent. It had a margin of error of 2.3 percentage points.
Many analysts say Lopez Obrador’s worst enemy is his own dogmatic nature – which may have led him to skip a national televised April 25 debate between all the other candidates.
“I don’t know if it’s his personality, or what,” said Carlos Cruz, a 23-year university student eating a sandwich at a downtown stand. “But he’s not very humble. He seems arrogant, domineering.” Cruz looks like a logical Lopez Obrador supporter – a ponytail, black T-shirt and jeans. But he doesn’t think the leftist is going to win. “It’s not so much Calderon’s gain in the polls, as it was his (Lopez Obrador’s) absence at the debate.” The day after the debate, Lopez Obrador reacted sardonically to the first recent poll showing him falling slightly behind Calderon, who represents President Vicente Fox’s National Action Party.
“Ha, ha, ha, ha. I’d like to see someone who actually believes their polls,” Lopez Obrador told supporters.
But poll after poll has shown his lead declining or disappearing.
While the news has gotten worse, Lopez Obrador’s response has remained as defiant, even angry, as ever.
“Their media campaign and their publishing rigged polls is not going to work,” he told supporters Tuesday. “I am sure we’re heading for victory.” The drop wasn’t just caused by the debate. National Action has spent heavily on advertisements depicting Lopez Obrador as a radical and “a danger to Mexico.” Lopez Obrador has played into that, publicly telling Fox to “shut up,” and referring to Fox and other critics as “chachalacas,” notoriously noisy birds.
The candidate benefited from his stubbornness as Mexico City mayor, facing down attempts to remove him from office while convincing many that there were plots against him. But the stance hasn’t worked as well during the campaign.
“Some people have told him that he has to change strategy, but he asks them to have confidence in him, that he knows what he’s doing,” said Blanca Gomez, the author of a biography of the candidate.
Lopez Obrador has “been digging his grave with his tongue,” said George Grayson, a Mexico expert at the College of William & Mary, adding, “He’s getting very testy, because a messiah is supposed to be adored by the people.” “He can’t reconcile the fact that he’s the redeemer for the Mexican masses, with the fact that’s he either running neck-and-neck or behind” in the polls, Grayson said.
Lopez Obrador still has a core of dedicated, almost adoring followers – something that may not be good for a man who, as Grayson says “perceives himself as being the savior of Mexican people.” “They can say whatever they want, they’re not going to change my mind. I like him. I’m voting for Lopez Obrador,” said Maria Felix Osorio, 36, an employee at a Mexico City clothing store.
Lopez Obrador’s justification for missing the April debate was that he didn’t want to interrupt his whistle-stop campaign, where he is often greeted like a conquering hero and draped with flower garlands.
The leftist could rebound in the polls in the second debate, scheduled for June 6, which he has promised to attend. But “he’s going to have reassure people,” Grayson said.
Gomez said it’s not clear that will happen.
“I’ve been to meetings with him, and the people adore him, they treat him like Luis Miguel,” the Mexican pop idol, said Gomez.
“This probably reinforces his belief that he’s got the election in his pocket.”
