Just as student report cards and teacher notes can provide early warning signs of a kid in trouble, the 2006 Colorado College State of the Rockies Report Card found some warning signs to watch about the region’s future.
One of the most important involves climate change.
Recent evidence and future climate predictions from a commonly accepted model, adapted by the project, document important regional climate changes: higher air temperatures, changing amounts of precipitation and reduced springtime snowpack. Our ways of life are slowly being affected. And while possible solutions must occur on a global scale, adaptation to changing climate is both feasible and within our reach on local and regional scales.
Historic data show surface temperatures have increased in most areas throughout the Rockies, with mean temperature increases from 1940-1996 of 0.6 degrees Celsius. Predictions of future temperature through 2100 have been run by the State of the Rockies research team for both a “business-as-usual” global approach to energy use, where annual temperature in the Rockies increases by 5 to 7 degrees Celsius, and a “reduced-emissions” scenario exhibiting temperature increases of 3 to 4 degrees Celsius. These projections are consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which predicts a rise in Earth’s temperatures by as much as 5.8 degrees Celsius by the year 2100, though warming will vary regionally.
Under both emissions scenarios, snow pack at Rocky Mountain region ski areas on April 1 decreases by 26 percent to 89 percent, shortening average seasons and threatening the financial viability of ski area operations.
Some Rockies river basins are projected to have drops in snow pack (from a 1976 baseline) approaching 100 percent (the Lower Colorado at -99 percent, the Rio Grande at -65 percent and the Upper Colorado at -53 percent), not only threatening our ski industry, but our water supply as well.
Because the Rockies’ fauna and flora are delicately balanced within ecosystems, climate deeply shapes the region’s natural systems. But human activity in the region is likewise climate-dependent: ranching, winter recreation, agriculture and the water supplies for a highly urbanized Rockies.
How quickly and innovatively the region plans for and manages adaptation to these climate changes will be the ultimate test of the mettle possessed by “rugged Westerners.”
The college’s April 10-13 State of the Rockies Conference brought together experts and citizens from around the region – Colorado, Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming – to discuss these findings and others of the 2006 report card and explore innovative new techniques for actively managing the Rockies.
This spectacularly beautiful region is endowed with major resources alongside natural and cultural amenities that are fragile and prone to being “loved to death.”
Other key sections of “The 2006 Colorado College State of the Rockies Report Card” are described below, with their marks and suggestions of where to go from here, as well as examples of creative solutions to our unique regional challenges.
Together, these sections sketch out a region undergoing rapid and prolonged change in populations, communities, wildlife, land use and climate.
Vital signs
The Rockies’ vital signs are once again measured to present a baseline of key indicators that measure where we are and how we compare to the rest of the country.
Statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau show a 7 percent population growth rate in the region since 2000 and 5 percent growth rate for Colorado, both well over the national rate of 2 percent.
We are fast losing the emptiness that has been a hallmark in many parts of the Rockies, with a total population of 19.4 million in 2004. Other vital signs from 2000 to 2004 include:
Overall employment grew by 3 percent, while service jobs rose by 13 percent and construction by 7 percent, but work in farming, fishing and forestry fell by 5 percent and in production by 8 percent.
About 20 percent of families in the Rockies speak a language other than English at home, compared to 16 percent in Colorado and 4 percent in Montana.
Nearly 22 percent of the region’s population identifies itself as Hispanic or Latino, above the U.S. average of 14 percent and Colorado’s average of 19 percent.
Median home values in the Rockies rose by 10 percent from 2000 to 2004, while for the U.S. the rise was 15 percent, and for Nevada 30 percent.
Reflecting the national recession starting in 2000, median family income fell by 4 percent in the Rockies, compared to 2 percent for the U.S. and 7 percent for Utah; Wyoming’s energy boom brought about a 10 percent increase through 2004.
High school graduates stood at 27 percent; those who went on to obtain at least a bachelor’s degree were at 17 percent.
Regional median income was slightly below the national average at $43,391.
Poverty levels across the Rockies stood alongside the national average, at 10 percent.
Employment growth in the Rockies was 8 percent, with the largest gain in the service industry at 15 percent, both figures exceeding the national average.
Colorado commuters on average have a 24-minute drive to work each day, compared to 25 minutes for the U.S.
Ranching, farming, land conservation
There is a steady movement underway to convert generations-old family ranches into larger industrial-scale operations, non-working “conservation” ranches and subdivisions. About a fourth of the West’s ranches have been converted to other uses in the last 30 years, and an additional 24 million acres are projected to disappear by 2020.
Because of development pressure and other factors, about 140,000 acres of farm and ranch lands were lost or sold each year from 1992 to 2002. Farm output as a portion of national gross domestic product continues to decline (down to 2.2 percent by 2004), and 93 percent of farmers are forced to earn non-farm income as well.
Smaller-scale ranchers are approaching these challenges in creative ways, including diversifying their operations, adopting new land-management techniques, and partnering with land trusts to establish conservation easements.
There are approximately 100 local, national and international land trusts operating in the Rockies region primarily for the protection of habitat, open space and ranchland. On average, 1.2 percent of all private land in the Rockies is under conservation protection by The Nature Conservancy and multiple members of the Land Trust Alliance, with Colorado having protected 409,000 acres.
Biodiversity and habitat
Several sections of 2006 Report Card gauge the level of Rockies biodiversity, which is a key measurement of the vitality and resilience of natural systems. A Habitat Threat Index shows that human populations are harming habitat in two important ways: by converting natural habitat into human habitat, and by harming the remaining natural habitat.
The highest threats to habitat are in central and eastern Colorado, southern Nevada, parts of southern Idaho, northern Utah and central New Mexico. Most of central and northern Nevada present the lowest threat to habitat.
In addition, fragmentation – the splitting up of large tracts of species’ habitat, mainly to accommodate development – is a major threat to the region’s biodiversity and natural heritage. Colorado’s Front Range contains the greatest amount of fragmented habitat in the Rockies.
Finally, invasive weeds throughout the Rockies are transforming once unique and diverse native vegetation communities into more homogeneous and aggressive vegetative cover. Rocky Mountain states have identified 162 different species of noxious weeds in the region. As a consequence of these vegetation changes, dependent animals are highly stressed.
Restoration of functioning native ecosystems will require both addressing the cause of invasions as well as effective replacement with native vegetation.
The 2006 report also delves into how the 281 counties in the Rockies region fare in environmental justice; explores how we might have a more powerful common Western voice in national politics; and grades counties on how well they nurture their youth.
The 130-page report was produced by six Colorado College students and two recent Colorado College graduates. It can be purchased through www.coloradocollege.edu/stateoftherockies, or by calling 719-389-6391; chapters may be downloaded for free as PDFs at the website.
