Miami – The next Atlantic hurricane season could produce up to 16 named storms, six of them major hurricanes, suggesting another active year but not the record pounding of 2005, scientists said Monday.
Some parts of the Gulf Coast are only starting to rebuild from Hurricane Katrina, the worst of last year’s record 28 named storms, 15 of which were hurricanes, seven of them Category 3 or higher.
While such a season is not predicted this year, National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield warned: “One hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season.”
Meteorologists said water in the Atlantic is not as warm as it was at this time in 2005, meaning potential storms would have less of the fuel needed to develop into hurricanes.
The predictions came on the same day that an independent report by a team of academics showed that the New Orleans levee system was routinely underfunded and therefore inadequate to protect against hurricanes. It also called for an overhaul of the agencies that oversee flood protection.
Last year, forecasters initially predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, with seven to nine of them becoming hurricanes, and three to five of those hurricanes being major, with winds of at least 111 mph. But the season turned out to be much busier, breaking records that had stood since 1851.
Last month, Colorado State University forecasters issued a forecast similar to the one made Monday. William Gray and Phillip Klotzbach called for nine hurricanes, five of them intense, and 17 named storms. They also predicted a 47 percent chance that a major hurricane would hit the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas.
Officials stressed Monday that predictions mean nothing if people do not act.
David Paulison, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s acting director, said more than 100,000 families still living in government trailers along the Gulf Coast will have to evacuate if a tropical storm threatens, even with winds of just 39 mph.
The 2006 hurricane season begins next week runs through November. New Orleans today and Wednesday will test new evacuation plans and emergency-response strategies meant to prevent the widespread confusion, especially among the poor, that accompanied the approach of Hurricane Katrina last year.
As part of the tests, about 80 volunteers will board New Orleans buses today and head to the city’s convention center and train station as a mock Category 3 hurricane bears down on the state’s Gulf Coast. The make-believe evacuees will then be tagged with wristbands for tracking.
In a real hurricane, the evacuees would be taken from New Orleans by bus or train to shelters first within the state and then elsewhere, depending on availability.
