The mediocrity provides motivation. Arizona Diamondbacks ace Brandon Webb was asked this week for a prediction about the National League West.
“I don’t think any team is going to separate themselves,” Webb said. “We lost like 25 games in June and we are only five games out. Obviously that tells you everyone in the division is pretty much doing the same.”
He just as easily could have been talking about the entire National League, where the teams are viewed like mid-majors in the Bowl Championship Series. Only the New York Mets have decorated themselves, winning 53 games. The West absorbs most of the criticism, even if it’s a bit misguided. The wild-card leader currently resides in the division, not the more distinguished Central, which spent the first half staining its tuxedos with caviar.
“But the races, with one exception, are all tight,” commissioner Bud Selig said.
Whether that’s compelling or painfully disturbing will be determined in the next 10 weeks. A look back and a peek ahead:
NL West
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Colorado Rockies
At the risk of being provincial, it has to be the local nine. Most thought they would finish last in the division. Las Vegas pegged them as a lost cause, predicting 67 wins. Their core of young talent is maturing more quickly than expected – see Matt Holliday, Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe – and their bullpen has drywalled most leaks. The Rockies have a realistic shot of ending their streak of five consecutive losing seasons.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT
Eric Gagne, Dodgers
After the greatest three-year run by a closer, Gagne’s career appears to be sinking in a sea of MRIs and scalpels. He converted one save, looking brilliant with a 93 mph fastball and a knee-stiffening curveball. But his elbow ached afterward, and any chance of a return was snuffed out when he had season-ending surgery on his back.
BEST HITTER
Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers
Garciaparra, who spent the past two years creeping out of the spotlight because of injuries, is healthy and raking, his résumé giving him the slight nod over Holliday. Though not the power source he once was, Garciaparra is contending for a batting title, has 36 extra-base hits and is hitting .387 with runners in scoring position.
BEST PITCHER
Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks
Webb has made a remarkable transformation from fledgling big-leaguer to legitimate ace. He began the season 8-0 and even with a few hiccups has been steadier and gulped more innings than Jason Jennings, Brad Penny or Jason Schmidt. Webb relies on a heavy sinker. “It has so much action going down that it’s difficult for the hitters to square up,” said Webb, who was encouraged to use the pitch by minor-league coach Royal Clayton, Royce’s brother, after Webb’s first season in the minor leagues.
TRADE FRONT
Talking to executives at the All-Star Game, the overall trade market is flat. Most figure it will be late developing, with the Dodgers and the Giants most likely to make blockbuster deals. The Dodgers are seeking a reliever to provide protection for rookie closer Takashi Saito, and there’s a buzz they will make a strong play for Alfonso Soriano. The Giants continue seeking a bat and have had interest in Pirates outfielder Craig Wilson and Sean Casey. The Diamondbacks could be sellers – Luis Gonzalez is an interesting chip, along with Craig Counsell – and the Rockies and Padres figure to add a complementary part in a reliever or platoon player.
WHAT TO WATCH IN SECOND HALF
The Padres’ bullpen has quietly been outstanding, leaving Trevor Hoffman in position to break Lee Smith’s all-time saves record – Hoffman has 460 down, with 19 to go. The determining factor could be health and money. The Giants (Barry Bonds), Padres (Ryan Klesko), Dodgers (Bill Mueller) have injury concerns, with youth on the Rockies’ side. Given the parity, the team that opens its wallet at month’s end and most effectively fills its needs should win the division.
NL Central
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Cincinnati Reds
General manager Wayne Krivsky has his peers in the rearview mirror for executive of the year after landing starter Bronson Arroyo, second baseman Brandon Phillips and catcher David Ross just a few days before the season began. All have helped fuel the Reds’ return to respectability.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT
Houston Astros
The Pirates are perennial losers, so their underachieving is expected. Not so in Houston. The Astros have looked more like the team that got swept in the World Series than the club that made a spirited run to get there. In two of Roger Clemens’ three starts, he left the mound with no run support. Closer Brad Lidge has struggled. Roy Oswalt didn’t mince words when asked about the first half. “We all think we are better,” he said. “We aren’t doing anything well.”
BEST HITTER
Albert Pujols, Cardinals
Pujols is that rare blend of power and discipline. He has 29 home runs and 25 strikeouts. If healthy, he should repeat as the NL’s MVP.
BEST PITCHER
Chris Carpenter, Cardinals
Not the dominant force he was last season, but he’s capable of putting up zeroes with the best of them. Carpenter doesn’t have the luxury of hitting speed bumps with the rest of the rotation in a six-week funk.
TRADE FRONT
While everyone assumes the Cardinals will add a pitcher, there’s a growing feeling they are going after a bat. GM Walt Jocketty’s previous deadline pickups include Will Clark, Mark McGwire and Larry Walker. Houston is definitely looking for offense and should be willing to part with Willy Taveras and Jason Lane.
WHAT TO WATCH IN SECOND HALF
Clemens’ last, last – really, it’s his last – magical run will be sabotaged by poor run support. The Reds’ bullpen will unravel, leaving the Cardinals to maintain their perch atop the division, with the Astros playing until the last day for the wild card.
NL East
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Florida Marlins
In an unscientific spring training poll at big-league camps, it was difficult to find anyone who knew any Marlins outside of Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Quicker than expected, Florida’s “market correction” has paid dividends. The Marlins actually are contenders for the wild card. Second baseman Dan Uggla is wonderful story, becoming the first player to make the All-Star Game in his first season after being selected in the Rule 5 draft, baseball’s version of welfare. “I like the way our young players have come together,” said Cabrera, referring obviously to moments when he’s not fighting with pitcher Scott Olsen in the dugout.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT
Philadelphia Phillies
They have monopolized this award in recent years, which helps explain why they are contemplating their second managerial change in three seasons. That gives them the edge over the fallen Braves dynasty. What’s wrong with Philly? Other than Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, its offense has failed, dragged down by light seasons from Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell. The Phillies’ handling of the Brett Myers situation cemented this honor. They reacted slowly and insensitively after Myers was arrested for hitting his wife in Boston, allowing Myers to make his next start before he voluntarily left the team to deal with his personal issues.
BEST HITTER
David Wright, Mets
Atlanta star Chipper Jones predicted Wright would become the next Scott Rolen. It has happened a season earlier than expected, with Wright blasting 20 home runs with 74 RBIs in the first half, barely eclipsing Washington’s Alfonso Soriano. Wright has shown an amazing ability to handle the New York glare. Flanked by Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado, Wright has plenty of protection to continue his assault on pitchers.
BEST PITCHER
Tom Glavine, Mets
He didn’t find the fountain of youth, he somersaulted into it. Glavine has 11 wins and again appears a threat to reach 300. With Pedro Martinez’s health iffy, Glavine will be counted on to anchor the staff in the second half.
TRADE FRONT
The Mets, perhaps eyeing the postseason, are seeking bullpen depth and another starter, though you can rule out Willis. He’s not available. Soriano is attracting attention from every team but Real Madrid. The Nationals are sellers, with Livan Hernandez and Tony Armas Jr. up for grabs. Philly would love to shed the contracts of Abreu and Burrell and might put pitcher Jon Lieber on the market.
WHAT TO WATCH IN SECOND HALF
Because of their big lead, the Mets will likely handle Martinez cautiously, giving him extra rest between starts and keeping him to fewer than 100 pitches per game to set him up better for the postseason.
