Israel may appear to be solidly in the driver’s seat in its fight with Hezbollah – pushing relentlessly to weaken the Islamic guerrilla group as much as it can while there is little international pressure for a quick cease-fire.
But in the long run, wars in the Middle East are not won only on the battlefield, especially when they are waged against tough and savvy militant groups like the one in south Lebanon.
In many ways, the biggest risk is that this sudden, violent little war will tip the balance toward extremists and away from moderates across the Middle East, including in Lebanon, where the government has been dramatically weakened by the fighting.
Not only will Israel lose soldiers, but it also faces the risk that whenever the fighting ends, Hezbollah – and its key backer, Iran – might be in a stronger, more influential political position than before.
That would hurt not just Israel but also the U.S.-led Palestinian peace efforts, the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program and the struggle to stabilize Iraq.
Hezbollah already has held its own so sufficiently that it can present a cease-fire as a victory, said Patrick Clawson at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Hezbollah’s leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, “can emerge victorious if he can plausibly claim that he conceded nothing. … He can write off the damage to Lebanon as the price of war.”
Of course, Israel does have a powerful short-term interest in destroying as many of Hezbollah’s weapons as it can and pushing the Shiite militants away from the Lebanese border.
A cease-fire that resulted in moving Hezbollah farther from the border with a depleted weapons supply, or a strike that killed the charismatic and popular Nasrallah, could give Israel valuable breathing space.
But the reality is that as long as it has political support in Lebanon, Hezbollah can always resupply through Iran and Syria. It has a group of committed fighters and supporters. And the greater the destruction to Lebanon, the more likely that Lebanon’s fledgling, Western-backed government will remain weak and unable to disarm Hezbollah.
All of that means Hezbollah’s overall position in Lebanon – and its ability to use the country as a base against Israel in the future – could improve as anger at Israel and backing for the guerrillas grow.
Hezbollah at first seemed to have miscalculated when it snatched two Israeli soldiers. The Saudis and Egyptians initially criticized Hezbollah but now are turning the harsh words on Israel.
But instead, Israel hit back hard, and as it did, Hezbollah appeared to be losing political ground. Many in the Mideast were dismayed at the group’s provocation and blamed it for the destruction in Lebanon.
Yet as the fighting continues, the mood is shifting perceptibly, at least among average Arabs, from anger at Hezbollah to more-familiar feelings of hostility toward Israel. That is what Hezbollah counts on.
Unless Western-leaning and pro-democracy supporters in Lebanon can rejuvenate the street strength they showed last year in their push for democracy, their side – the moderates – seems certain to lose influence.
