The Bowl Championship Series, American sports’ favorite whipping boy, got off easy last season. But don’t expect two teams to run the table again. This is a wide-open national race.
Don’t believe it? Put down your buckeye necklaces, Ohio State fans, and check with the experts. Coaches in the USA Today poll gave six teams first-place votes, as did the writers in The Associated Press poll.
Also, can No. 1 Ohio State really be a sure thing for the title with no returning starters among the defense’s back seven? Better yet, can AP’s No. 3 Texas challenge Ohio State with a freshman at quarterback?
At least we’ll find out early. They meet Sept. 9 in Austin, Texas.
If those two falter, who would you bet your condo on? If you can name a USC tailback, you need a hobby. And Notre Dame’s defense is just now getting out of the Phoenix burn unit after meeting up with Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl.
The best team on paper may be Texas Christian, which can finally prove itself to a bigger TV audience in January. The stodgy BCS opened its gilded gates a smidge to let in two more teams. This is the first season of the BCS’ double-hosting system, in which the four major bowls annually alternate hosting the national championship game, after each hosts its regular game within a week before the finale.
This season the Fiesta Bowl will host the big one Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz., in the new Cardinals Stadium.
It’s a nice gesture, but no one will care if three teams are staring at January with one loss each. Don’t think it can’t happen. Don’t think college football is fixed.
But look below and you’ll see a lot of things right with the game. The buckeye necklace, however, is not one of them.
Heisman Trophy hopefuls
Brady Quinn, QB, Sr., Notre Dame. He has already broken the school mark for yards (3,633)and TD passes (32) in a season. Can you imagine him in his second year under Charlie Weis and with eight other offensive starters, including All-America receiver Jeff Samardzija?
Troy Smith, QB, Sr., Ohio State. Any quarterback of a top-ranked team deserves consideration, especially after he blew away Quinn in the Fiesta Bowl rout and has Ted Ginn Jr. ready for a breakout year.
Brian Brohm, QB, Jr., Louisville. He’s supposedly recovered from the torn knee and he should easily top the 2,883 yards and 19 TDs he had last season. Louisville’s French pastry schedule has only three games against teams coming off winning seasons: Rutgers, Miami (Fla.) and West Virginia.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Jr., Oklahoma. He finished second in the Heisman race as a freshman after 1,925 yards and is healthy this year. He gained 1,108 yards while missing nearly four games in 2005. The only question is how he’ll hold up against seven-man lines. Thanks, Rhett.
Michael Bush, TB, Sr., Louisville. If Brohm doesn’t win it, it may be because Bush scores too many touchdowns. He had more than anyone who didn’t leave for the NFL with 24 and will have the nation watching against West Virginia, at home, in midseason to put himself in voters’ heads.
Best quarterback battles
California: Nate Longshore, So., vs. Joe Ayoob, Sr. Longshore took snaps before Ayoob in summer drills, but it’s still neck and neck. Longshore beat out Ayoob last fall before breaking his leg in the opener, and then Ayoob struggled. If both falter, there’s always senior Steve Levy, a converted fullback.
Texas: Colt McCoy, Fr., vs. Jevan Snead, Fr. McCoy has the edge based on his redshirt year and stronger arm. But Snead, a true freshman, arrived in January after throwing for 100 touchdowns his past two years at Stephenville (Texas) High.
Texas Tech: Graham Harrell, So., vs. Chris Todd, Fr. Harrell, who hit 14-of-17 passing in mop-up against Sam Houston State, will start but both will play. Todd has that much of a cannon. These are the best QB prospects Texas Tech has had in years.
Arkansas: Casey Dick, So., vs. Robert Johnson, Jr. Huh? OK, normally this wouldn’t register past the Ozarks except for Johnson won his job back after Dick developed back issues, and waiting in the wings is Mitch Mustain, the top prep quarterback in nation last season.
North Carolina: Joe Dailey, Jr., vs. Cam Sexton, Fr. Dailey, the guinea pig for Nebraska’s struggling West Coast offense in 2004, is neck and neck with the No. 6-rated QB in the nation that same year. Sexton, from Laurinberg, N.C., redshirted last season after breaking his ankle.
Five teams to watch
Clemson. The team that won six of its last seven in 2005 returns its entire offensive line and all its skill positions but quarterback. But senior Will Proctor has looked good backing up for three years, and the Tigers have eight home games (including Temple at Charlotte, N.C.).
Texas Christian. If any team is going to take advantage of the BCS’ expanded bowl format, it’s TCU. The Frogs are the best of the rest in the five non-BCS conferences. Senior quarterback Jeff Ballard and the two top running backs return. The Frogs make a BCS bowl if they beat Texas Tech on Sept. 16 at home and Utah at Salt Lake City on Oct. 5.
Georgia Tech. One of the best bets in college football is senior QBs excelling. Bet on Reggie Ball to find consistency, particularly with WR Calvin Johnson. Tech’s defense is always good, and the opener against Notre Dame could be an upset special.
Arizona. Sophomore Willie Tuitama is being touted as the most talented Wildcats quarterback in history, and the back seven on defense are among the most talented in the Pac-10. The lines are deep and experienced. Plus, four of the first five games are at home.
Toledo. Coach Tom Amstutz keeps putting out impressive teams, and this one has 16 starters back from a 9-3 club. The MAC’s best defense also returns, and it has a legitimate shot at Iowa State in the opener, then Kansas at home two weeks later.
Games to watch
Sept. 2, Notre Dame at Georgia Tech, 6 p.m., MDT. A real trap for second-ranked Notre Dame, which faces the dangerous Reggie Ball-to-Calvin Johnson combination with a questionable pass defense.
Sept. 9, Ohio State at Texas, 6 p.m. MDT. This could be No. 1 vs. No. 2 (if the Irish lose in Week 1) with new Ohio State linebackers facing a freshman QB and Texas’ great defense against the explosive Buckeyes.
Nov. 2, West Virginia at Louisville, 5:30 p.m. MST. Forget the Big East title. The winner may have the BCS championship game in its sights.
Nov. 18, California at Southern California, 6 p.m. MST. If form holds, this will be for the Pac-10 title and a BCS berth. And, if form holds, this will be a whale of a game.
Nov. 25, Notre Dame at Southern California, 6 p.m. MST. The best regular-season game of 2005 gets a rematch with USC’s seasoned defense against possible Heisman Trophy front-runner Brady Quinn.
Impact true freshmen
Stefon Johnson, TB, Southern California. With the Trojans’ backfield devastated by injuries and academics, Johnson can step right in. The Parade All-American rushed for 2,197 yards and 22 TDs for Dorsey High in L.A. last year.
Myron Rolle, DB, Florida State. Graduated early from the Hun School in Princeton, N.J., where he was ESPN and Rivals.com’s player of year. He took part in spring and will play significant minutes, if not start at rover.
Jevan Snead, QB, Texas. He could sit on the bench all year if fellow frosh Colt McCoy has a great year. Don’t count on it. Snead was 9-for-13 for 97 yards and a TD in a spring scrimmage.
Chris Wells, TB, Ohio State. He won’t start, not with junior Antonio Pittman back after 1,331 yards. But Wells likely will spell him. Wells was rated nation’s top running back after 2,134 yards and 27 TDs at Garfield High in Akron, Ohio.
Mitch Mustain, QB, Arkansas. Right now he’s third string. But the first- and second-string quarterbacks aren’t destined for Canton, and Mustain threw for 3,817 yards and 47 TDs in leading Springdale (Ark.) High to a 14-0 mark and a state title. Oh, Springdale coach Gus Malzahn conveniently moved over as the Razorbacks’ offensive coordinator.
Players on the hot seat
John David Booty, QB, Jr., Southern California. What’s more pressure than following two Heisman Trophy winners after back surgery? Having a potential Heisman Trophy winner on your back. Yes, freshman Mark Sanchez is that good. If Booty falters early (at Arkansas in the opener), Pete Carroll won’t hesitate with the hook.
Chris Leak, QB, Sr., Florida. He threw for 2,639 yards and 20 touchdowns last year, but wasn’t Urban renewal supposed to produce more? Urban Meyer’s quarterbacks always do in Year 2. Leak also has freshman sensation Tim Tebow, handpicked by Meyer, pacing in the bullpen.
Quarterback, Fr., Texas. It’s either Colt McCoy or Jevan Snead, both freshmen and both considered the weak link of a defending national champion returning 14 starters. The message: Don’t blow it.
Ambrose Wooden, CB, Sr., Notre Dame. The Irish’s Achilles’ heel is pass coverage, and while he can’t be blamed for Matt Leinart’s pinpoint pass in the dying moments against USC, Wooden broke up only five passes all year. He’ll likely get Georgia Tech’s Calvin Johnson in the opener Saturday.
John Kerr, LB, Sr., Ohio State. The Buckeyes must replace three high draft picks and Kerr is in the middle. He hasn’t started a game in four years after starring at Indiana but thinks he can play at Ohio State’s level. He had better prove it.
Coaches on the hot seat
Rich Brooks, Kentucky, fourth year, 9-25. His players underwent 31 surgeries since last season. Still, he had better get to six wins. Hiring QBs coach Randy Sanders, the offensive coordinator who washed out at Tennessee, probably won’t help.
Larry Coker, Miami, sixth year, 53-9. When a coach fires four assistants, he transfers himself to the front burner. Since finishing national runner-up in 2002, Hurricanes haven’t finished higher than ninth in the BCS standings. With Florida State and Louisville in the first three games, starting 1-2 isn’t advised.
John L. Smith, Michigan State, fourth year, 18-18. Smith didn’t exactly buy a condo in the Upper Peninsula after his president and AD came out at season’s end saying he needed to do something this year. His halftime tirade against Ohio State on national TV didn’t help, either.
Chuck Amato, North Carolina State, seventh year, 46-28. He went only 7-5 a year ago with three defenders drafted in the first round. What will he do this year without them plus his three top receivers? He may battle Wake Forest for last place in the ACC Atlantic.
Dennis Franchione, Texas A&M, fourth year, 16-19. This is A&M’s worst three-year skid since going 13-19 from 1971-73. But A&M signed Franchione through 2012 to keep up tradition, and an easy schedule should give him a reprieve.
New coaches with a chance to shine
Dan Hawkins, Colorado. A school can do wonders with a fresh start, particularly one with a coach whose Boise State offense over the past five years was the third most productive in nation.
Chuck Long, San Diego State. His electric personality will help mine California’s rich recruiting ground, and adding a bit of Oklahoma’s offensive magic should jump-start moribund program.
Chris Petersen, Boise State. Hawkins built such a factory in Boise, Petersen must merely keep the engine running. Plus, he has 20 starters back from the 9-4 team for which he was offensive coordinator.
Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders have underachieved, but maybe South Carolina’s recruiting coordinator can light a fire under a team returning Clint Marks, the school’s No. 3 all-time passer.
Ron Prince, Kansas State. It won’t help having his starting quarterback transfer, but Prince has the facilities to compete in the Big 12 North, which is always up for grabs.
New coaches likely to need counseling
Al Golden, Temple. Come on. Could being defensive coordinator at Virginia be that bad? The Owls have no conference yet, no set quarterback, no fan base and no wins since 2004.
Turner Gill, Buffalo. Is it considered racial diversity when African-Americans have to reach for programs like this, 10-69 since going I-A in 1999? Buffalo averaged 10 points a game last year.
Todd Graham, Rice. History doesn’t get much uglier than this: One win last year broke a nation-leading 14-game losing streak, and Rice hasn’t played in a bowl since 1961, before Graham was born.
Dennis Erickson, Idaho. He’ll turn this around. Despite his methods, Erickson could have righted the Titanic. However, Idaho opens at Michigan State and also plays at Washington State and Oregon State in the first four weeks.
Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern. Sorry, Pat. You may be a fine coach someday. But being thrown to the Big Ten wolves at 31 is too much to ask the nation’s youngest I-A coach. You’re in over your head. For now.
Best bets to leave early
Dwayne Jarrett, WR, Jr., Southern California. He was USC’s best receiver last year, and his 29 touchdown receptions are only three off the Pacific 10 career mark. He’s one of USC’s few experienced offensive weapons, and it will be his turn to shine.
Adrian Peterson, TB, Jr., Oklahoma. He has been considered one of the top three picks whenever he comes out. He’ll want to come out after a year of scrutiny, both by Oklahoma and defenses. With quarterback Rhett Bomar exiled, Peterson will get all the carries he wants – if he stays healthy.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Jr., Georgia Tech. The NFL is drooling over his acrobatic catches. With a senior quarterback in Reggie Ball and high-profile game against defensively challenged Notre Dame to open the season, Johnson may become a household name soon.
Sam Baker, OT, Jr., Southern California. Would he stick around in 2007 to start a fourth year? Maybe. He likes school, but how much more can he prove if he’s a first-team All-American, as projected? He’ll haul in a ton of honors if he anchors an inexperienced offense to greatness.
Ted Ginn Jr., WR-KR, Jr., Ohio State. Here’s betting Jim Tressel uses the college game’s most exciting player before the final regular-season game this time. Last year, he had nine catches against Michigan, and then eight for 167 yards and a touchdown against Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl. Here’s also betting Ginn doesn’t drop passes, as he did the first half of last season.
