Five months ago, manager Warren Schaeffer made a bold statement.
“The ultimate goal is to bring consistent winning seasons to this organization,” Schaeffer said on the day he slipped off the interim tag and was officially named Rockies manager. “You’re going to see winning baseball in Denver a lot sooner than you think.”
Raise your hand if you were skeptical.
I don’t blame you. Three consecutive 100-loss seasons, topped off by last year’s 119-loss disaster, tend to squeeze the optimism out of even the most positive fans. But Scheaffer might be on to something.
Entering Sunday’s doubleheader vs. the Mets (Saturday’s game at Citi Field was rained out), the Rockies are 11-16. They have been solid at home (7-6), though predictably wobbly on the road (4-10). They are on pace to finish 66-96, which would be a 23-game improvement from last season. I picked the Rockies to lose 102 games, so they are exceeding my expectations — at least in the early going.
Some very early observations, questions, and predictions with 16.6% of the season in the books:
The bullpen has been excellent: Even with the Padres’ ninth-inning rally vs. Victor Vodnik last Thursday, the relievers have been the best thing about the Rockies this season. Colorado’s 3.77 ERA ranks 12th in the majors, and considering the Coors Field factor, that’s pretty good. Former starter Antonio Senzatela looks reborn. He’s given up two runs over 18 innings (0.50 ERA) with 18 strikeouts vs. four walks.
Is the bullpen’s excellence sustainable? History tells us no. The wear and tear of the season usually causes Rockies relievers to implode in August and September. Schaeffer and the front office are well aware of that history, which is a reason why we’re seeing Colorado use so many “bulk relievers.” Pitchers like Jimmy Herget, Chase Dollander and Senzatela have been purposely scheduled for multiple innings, with the hope that late-game relievers won’t be toast in August. We’ll see if it works.
Can Dollander become a true ace? Yes, he can. It’s not just that his stats — 2.88 ERA, .198 batting average against, 32 strikeouts vs. seven walks — but his demeanor, self-confidence, and easy power that give him a chance to be great. Of course, a true ace doesn’t have a reliever opening games for him, but I imagine that set up is going to change sooner rather than later.
Who’s a possible All-Star? Right now, the Rockies have two candidates — catcher Hunter Goodman (.264 average, .870 OPS, six homers) and outfielder Mickey Moniak (.315, 1.050, eight). But there are two caveats here. First, Goodman’s 37.3% strikeout rate is much too high. Second, Moniak has had hot streaks before. Can he be productive for a full season?
But wouldn’t it be cool if Moniak gets to play in the All-Star Game at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia? Remember, the Phillies selected him with the first overall pick in the 2016 draft.
Ezequiel Tovar will play better: The shortstop has not played well thus far, at least not by his standards. His .967 fielding percentage ranks 10th in the majors, his 3.70 range factor is ninth, and his 0.0 DWAR ranks 23rd. His numbers will improve because he’s a talented, athletic shortstop who could still end up in the Gold Glove conversation.
However, Tovar looks lost at the plate right now, as evidenced by his .216/.255/.330 slash line that includes just one home run. His strikeout rate is 28.4%, his walk rate is just 2.9%, and his chase rate is a very hight 48.5%. Those are reasons why he’s hitting low in Schaeffer’s lineup.
When Tovar hit .269 with 26 homers and 45 doubles in 2024, I thought he was just getting warmed up. It’s early, but he needs to become a more disciplined hitter to become the star so many envisioned.
What’s up with Brenton Doyle and Jordan Beck? There have been flashes that they could be pillars of the Rockies’ outfield for years to come. That’s not happening right now.
Beck isn’t getting on base consistently (.204 on-base percentage), so he’s not getting consistent playing time, which, in turn, is part of the reason why he’s hitting just .160 with one home run. He’s in no-man’s land right now. He might be a slow starter, but he’s going to need to earn more at-bats to climb out of his funk. That’s not easy in the big leagues.
Doyle is beginning to hit the ball hard again, and the Rockies need his defense in center field. But he’s striking out 35% of the time, and his track record shows he’s a streak hitter. Right now, he’s slashing .219/.288/.288 with one home run and a .143 average with runners in scoring position. The jury is still out on his future.
TJ Rumfield is a real find: The rookie first baseman is everything that former first baseman Michael Toglia was not. In Friday night’s win over the Mets, he put together a seven-pitch at-bat against Freddie Peralta with the bases loaded in the fifth inning. Rumfield didn’t get a hit, but he grounded out and scored a run. He takes unselfish at-bats, which is not always easy for a rookie. He’s hitting a solid .292 (7 for 24) with runners in scoring position.
Major decisions loom for the front office: Paul DePodesta, president of baseball operations, has been progressive since taking over the front office — pitch-calling “suggestions” from the dugout, a lot of new people on staff, and beefing up the analytics department.
Former general manager Bill Schmidt was criticized for holding on to players and getting nothing in return. So I’ll be curious to see how many veteran starters DePodesta will put on the market as the Aug. 3 trade deadline comes into view. Right-handers Michael Lorenzen and Tomoyuki Sugano, and lefty Jose Quintana, are all pitching on one-year deals. Lorenzen has a $9 million club option for 2027, but I doubt the Rockies will pick it up. Senzatela is also in the final year of his contract.
The wild-card here is lefty Kyle Freeland, who’s in his 10th year with the Rockies. He’s pitched terrifically so far, but his stint on the injured list means his player option likely won’t kick in. He needs to pitch 170 innings for his $17,000 option to vest for 2027.
