Washington – Facing the most difficult political environment since they took control of Congress in 1994, Republicans begin the final two months of the midterm campaign in growing danger of losing the House while fighting to preserve at best a slim majority in the Senate, according to strategists and officials in both parties.
Over the summer, the political battlefield has expanded well beyond the roughly 20 GOP House seats originally thought to be vulnerable.
Now some Republicans concede there may be almost twice that number of districts from which Democrats could wrest the 15 additional seats they need to take control.
President Bush’s low approval ratings, sharp divisions over the war in Iraq, dissatisfaction with Congress and economic anxiety caused by high gasoline prices and stagnant wages have alienated independent voters, energized the Democratic base and thrown once-safe Republican incumbents on the defensive.
As the campaign season begins, Democrats are trying to guard against premature celebration, even as their prospects are brighter than most ever imagined.
Republicans are hoping for some outside event that would show the president and their party in better light-a spate of good news from Iraq, a foiled terrorist plot or an unlikely break in the deadlock over immigration reform on Capitol Hill.
Meanwhile, some finger- pointing has begun as Republicans here and across the country blame the White House and the GOP congressional leadership for leaving Republican candidates in such a vulnerable position.
Despite these advantages, Democratic strategists say they see ways they could fall short of their goal of capturing one or both houses of Congress.
They cite what they consider to be a superior Republican get- out-the-vote operation, a coming barrage of negative ads aimed at their challenger candidates and a sizable cash-on- hand disparity between the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee.
Even with political winds at their back, Democrats to take control must defeat a significant number of incumbents – ordinarily one of the hardest tasks in politics – and in most cases do so in districts that have voted consistently Republican in recent presidential races.
Nonetheless, everything points today to Democratic gains across the board Nov. 7.
Tim Hibbits, an independent pollster in Portland, Ore., who has been surveying voters for decades, said, “I’m not saying this is another 1994,” when the then-dominant Democrats lost both the House and Senate.
“But voters are not happy. It’s not just Iraq. It’s also that most people don’t feel better off economically.”
