The folks at Stats Inc. have come up with 725,760 possibilities for the order of the top 11 Nextel Cup drivers to shake out following Saturday’s race at Richmond, Va.
The bottom line, however, isn’t so complicated.
Just making NASCAR’s third-year playoffs is all that matters, because once the Chase field is identified, the drivers are bunched together in increments of just five points, giving each a shot at the championship over the final 10 races.
“This is what it is all about,” said 10th-place driver Jeff Burton, who is trying to ward off No. 11 Kasey Kahne for what likely will be the final Chase spot. “If you don’t want it like this, then don’t be in this deal. This is what racing is about. This is what racing for championships is about. … It is how it is and how it should be. I relish the opportunity.”
The third-year system takes effect after Saturday’s race, the 25th points event in the grueling season. It likely will be a 10-man affair for the third consecutive season because Kahne, the last eligible Chase driver despite a series-high five victories, is 489 points behind leader Matt Kenseth.
Kahne needs to climb within 400 points of the leader, which is doubtful, or break into the top 10. Burton is ahead of Kahne by 30 points, and just two points ahead of No. 9 Mark Martin.
Eighth-place Tony Stewart, the defending series champion, needs to finish seventh or better to clinch a spot. The drivers sitting third through seventh – a pack that includes four-time series champion Jeff Gordon and mega star Dale Earnhardt Jr. – must only avoid an accident or engine failure and an outstanding result by Kahne.
Kenseth and second-place Jimmie Johnson are the only drivers to have clinched Chase spots.
“It lets us sleep a little easier, and we’ll watch my teammates, Jeff (Gordon) and Kyle (Busch) pound it out and hopefully join us in this thing,” Johnson said. “For me, life becomes a lot different next week.”
Kenseth, who leapfrogged Johnson on Sunday in California, said Richmond is the perfect setting for a race of this magnitude. He dubbed the short track NASCAR’s premier “all-around race track.”
“To have the Chase start there, to have all that action and all that drama unfold at Richmond – a track that has a tremendous amount of that anyway – I think it’s pretty cool,” Kenseth said.
Keith Green, spokesman for Richmond International Raceway, said despite having only 11 Chase-eligible drivers – compared to 15 at this time in 2004 and 14 last year- there should be plenty of drama unfolding at the regular-season finale.
“You still have big name drivers in the mix, five or six guys, that can’t make it,” Green said. “Gordon and Earnhardt might not make it. You’ve got Mark Martin, who is in his final season, who may not make it. Yeah, it’s different from the first race, when midway through it you had 14 guys in the Chase because four of them were within 400 points of the leader, but we feel there is plenty of drama leading into this race.”
Johnson loves the drama, even though in pre-Chase years he would have had an easier shot to win the championship.
“Before the Chase, it was a two-man race right now,” Johnson said. “There’s a lot more love being spread around right now.”
Mike Chambers can be reached at 303-954-1357 or mchambers@denverpost.com.
