Navy coach Paul Johnson knows enough about service academy rivalries to know not to predict who will win the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy this year, even though his Midshipmen have won the trophy the past three seasons.
But he also knows who should be favored to win it, and his vote goes to Notre Dame.
The 12th-ranked Irish aren’t in the mix to win the trophy, but for the first time in 11 years, they’re playing Air Force, Navy and Army in the same season.
“I’d say that Notre Dame would have to be the early favorite to win the trophy,” Johnson said facetiously. “I’d venture to guess the oddsmakers would make Notre Dame the favorite.”
The last time Navy beat Notre Dame was 1963, and the Irish have won 42 straight times in the series going into their Oct. 28 game this year in Baltimore. Army’s last victory over the Irish was 1958. The Black Knights and Irish meet Nov. 18 at Notre Dame.
Air Force has had better recent success against the Irish, winning in 1996. But Notre Dame has winning streaks of 11 and eight games in the series. The Falcons and Irish meet Nov. 11 at Air Force.
But back to reality and the real Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy competition.
“If you can’t win the first game on the (trophy) schedule, you’re not going to win it,” Johnson said. “You might tie for it, but that’s the best you can do.”
The need to win the first game in order to possibly win the trophy outright starts Saturday at Falcon Stadium, with Navy riding a three-game winning streak (all by three points) over Air Force. Navy won the 2003 meeting 28-25, snapping the Falcons’ six-game win streak in the series.
“The last two games have gone down to the last play,” AFA coach Fisher DeBerry said. “But they’ve had our number the last three years. Navy really has come on since our game three years ago.”
The Falcons play at Army on Nov. 3. The Army-Navy game is Dec. 2 in Philadelphia. If the round robin results in a tie, Navy retains the trophy.
“I don’t think we look at it as our trophy, but we’ve had it the last three years,” Johnson said. “There’s no doubt we’d like to keep it.”
Johnson has worked wonders in getting Navy back on the map. When he became Navy’s coach in 2002, the Middies’ record the previous two years was 1-20.
Johnson’s first team went 2-10, but since then Navy has gone 30-12 and played in three bowl games, including a 51-30 victory last year over Colorado State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Navy’s 10-2 team in 2004 was the first group of Middies to win 10 games in a season since 1905.
“I don’t know if that was our best team,” Johnson said. “They had the best record, but I haven’t really thought about it.”
Johnson said a change in attitude played a big role in fueling the Navy turnaround.
“There’s such a fine line between winning and losing, and it’s just magnified at an academy. Attitude and confidence are important in any game,” Johnson said. “They’re huge factors in a service academy game. But it can’t be on the surface. Anybody can talk.”
Irv Moss can be reached at 303-954-1296 or imoss@denverpost.com.
