Amman, Jordan – The future of Iraq may depend little on whether Sad dam Hussein hangs. The Sunni insurgency is so deeply entrenched and sectarian bloodlust so strong that Iraq seems set to continue spiraling into violence – regardless of its former president’s fate.
Some fear that the Hussein verdict, by angering the Sunni minority, could intensify the violence once a curfew in Baghdad is lifted. Others say they hope the verdict gives Iraqis a chance “to unite and build a better future,” in the words of the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad.
But in the end, Hussein’s fate is not what’s driving the violence in Iraq now. Instead, religious, nationalistic and sectarian passions have taken over and are tearing the country apart.
Even if it causes a spasm of violence, Hussein’s verdict is just a symbol of the deeper, underlying problems. Sunnis are alarmed at the prospect of Shiite domination. Shiites are fed up with attacks by Sunni extremists.
Without an effective government to protect them, both communities have become locked in a murderous cycle of reprisal killings that looks likely to continue.
The insurgency started with Hussein loyalists.
But it long ago expanded into a multifaceted conflict waged by different groups with different goals: nationalists seeking to drive foreigners from Iraqi soil; Sunni militants fearing domination by the Shiites; and religious zealots waging a global jihad against America.
The death of Hussein would matter little to religious extremists, for example, willing to sacrifice their own lives for their cause.
Likewise with the sectarian violence that has pushed the country to the brink of civil war. It started when Sunni insurgents began attacking Shiite civilians, considering them collaborators with the Americans.
With U.S. and Iraqi forces unable to stop those attacks, Shiite militias took the law into their own hands, sending death squads to exact vengeance on Sunni civilians. Since the bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February, sectarian reprisal killings have spiraled out of control.
Those hatreds will continue to drive the violence – regardless of what happens to Hussein. Neither the Americans nor their Iraqi partners have found a way to control them.
It’s not that Hussein’s fate has no effect at all: Hussein’s execution could turn him into a martyr for some Sunnis, who consider the trial simply a smokescreen for the failures of the Americans and their Shiite and Kurdish allies.
