If your little Lucy is set on a T.M.X. Elmo under the tree this year, or if little Luke has the Kid-Tough Digital Camera on the top of his list, then you better get a game plan for how to snag two of the hottest toys this holiday season.
In what is expected to be a strong season for toy sales, many of the most popular will be difficult, if not practically impossible, to find.
Some stores said they’ve already had two or three shipments of Elmos and the cameras sell out, and demand will far exceed supply for the new Sony PlayStation 3 and Nintendo Wii video game consoles.
“I think this is going to be the best holiday season in the past five years for toys,” said Sean McGowan, an analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities in New York. “Consumers are willing to spend more for toys, even if they are more expensive.”
Despite a slow start to the year, with toy sales down 2.9 percent from August 2005 to August 2006, analysts are predicting sales for the year will be up 2 percent to 3 percent, with the help of a fast start for the new Elmo, unveiled in September.
One reason toys are more expensive this year: Many classics are getting updates to get the attention of kids addicted to iPods, cellphones and video games.
Toy Wishes magazine’s annual list of this year’s must-have toys includes Elmo (which flaps its arms, falls to the floor, rolls around and stands back up again), My Fur Real Friends Butterscotch pony (when kids climb onto it, the pony responds with a clip-clop walking sound) and Monopoly Here & Now (which adds Times Square and Rodeo Drive as properties and ditches the railroads for airports).
Even toddlers are getting a piece of the action. Mark and Linda Babich were on the hunt recently for the Kid-Tough Digital Camera for their 3-year-old grandson, so he can take pictures in Germany, where his family will be living for two years.
And they weren’t having much luck.
The Boyne City, Mich., couple tried to find the camera at Toys “R” Us stores in Sterling Heights and Madison Heights and planned to go to a third store in Roseville.
“We’re not hoping for success,” said Mike Babich, a 58-year-old retired schoolteacher.
Shoppers are going to find that one quick trip to the toy store won’t be enough, shopping experts said. Consumers should expect to start shopping early, visit several stores frequently or buy online.
Industry analysts expect robust toy sales this year largely because of lower gas prices and a better national economy.
A survey by NPD Group, which tracks consumer and retail market research information, found that consumers intend to spend an average of $153 on toys this season, up 12 percent from last year.
“What’s encouraging is that the hot holiday toy list actually has toys and not video games,” said Scott Krugman of the National Retail Federation, “because it sends people to the toy stores and not the electronics stores.”
Big-name toy makers and retailers have reported an unusually early holiday shopping season, brought about by Elmo’s September debut and better- than-expected third-quarter profits, according to the Toy Industry Association.
KB Toys is relying on exclusive merchandise such as the “Cars” Fast Talking Lightning McQueen Remote Control Vehicle to have an edge on its competitors, said Geoffrey Webb, director of advertising and sales promotions.
“We’re very excited about this year’s toy offerings, and the economy looks better,” Webb said.
Toy stores also are taking advantage of the momentum by opening earlier and staying open later to accommodate shoppers.
