Notre Dame versus Louisiana State. No, that’s not a proposed bowl game. The way Notre Dame played at Southern California last Saturday, it wouldn’t even be a good exhibition game. Actually, it’s one choice the Rose Bowl will make Sunday when it pushes over the dominoes in the Bowl Championship Series.
The Rose Bowl holds the key to a BCS that, if form holds, will be fairly free of the controversy that has plagued it since its inception in 1998. The BCS bowl process is confusing, illogical and, in most years, makes no sense. So bear with us as we break down the five BCS bowls, all with payouts from $14 million to $17 million.
This is the first season of the new “double-hosting” format. For the next few years, one of the four BCS bowl sites – Fiesta, Rose, Sugar and Orange – will hold its bowl as well as the BCS title game a week later. This season it’s the Fiesta Bowl, which will be held Jan. 1 and then have top-ranked Ohio State (12-0) in the title game Jan. 8 in the new University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
Each BCS bowl has a conference tie-in. The Rose gets the Big Ten and Pac-10 champions, the Sugar the Southeastern, the Orange the Atlantic Coast and the Fiesta the Big 12. If a bowl loses its conference tie-in to the BCS title game, it gets first choice of all eligible at-large teams not tied to bowls.
With Big Ten champion Ohio State ranked No. 1, the Rose has first choice. It will have two choices if Pac-10 champion USC (10-1) wins at UCLA (6-5) on Saturday and advances to the BCS title game. Therefore, what the Rose does will set the landscape for the other BCS bowls. After the Rose, the order of selection is the Sugar, Orange and Fiesta.
Here is a look at the projected matchups:
BCS Championship
Glendale, Ariz., Jan. 8
Ohio State (12-0) vs. USC (10-1): This is cut and dried – if USC wins Saturday. USC coach Pete Carroll is 5-0 against UCLA, with the Trojans winning by an average score of 44-17 so far.
If USC loses (it’s a 13 1/2-point favorite), No. 4 Florida (11-1) could leapfrog No. 3 Michigan into No. 2 if it beats No. 9 Arkansas (10-2) in Saturday’s SEC championship game in Atlanta. If Florida and USC both lose, get set for a Ohio State-Michigan rematch.
Rose Bowl
Pasadena, Calif., Jan. 1
LSU (10-2) vs. Michigan (11-1): The bowl brass won’t admit it, but they may be wearing baby blue and gold under their red sport coats Saturday. A UCLA win over USC would give the Rose Bowl its dream Pac 10-Big Ten matchup, but …
“It’s not going to happen this year, it looks like,” Rose Bowl CEO Mitch Dorger said from Pasadena. “Second, we need a good game on the field. Some BCS bowls in the past have invited teams they knew travel well, but it wasn’t a good game. We’re trying to put on a good game.”
Which may rule out Notre Dame. Normally, bowl committees fight like crazed weasels over the Irish. They get high TV ratings. They travel well. And Notre Dame (10-2) hasn’t played in Pasadena since its first bowl game in 1925. But the Irish’s loss at USC exposed their defense to be almost as bad as in the 47-21 loss, at home, to Michigan in Week 3.
“Michigan is very, very good,” Dorger said. “They’ve already played Notre Dame once. The BCS does not look favorably on rematches.”
For an at-large opponent, it appears the Rose wants fifth-ranked LSU (10-2), which, after its 31-26 win at Arkansas, is arguably the best team in the nation’s best conference. It also has the second-ranked defense in the country and would be a great match for Michigan’s speedy skill players.
Sugar Bowl
New Orleans, Jan. 3
Notre Dame (10-2) vs. Florida (11-1): It will be Arkansas if it beats Florida, a 2 1/2-point favorite, but Notre Dame would take the other spot over LSU. The Sugar Bowl has an unwritten rule against rematches.
If the Rose Bowl has a change of heart and takes Notre Dame, the Sugar would likely take the Big East champion.
Orange Bowl
Miami, Jan. 2
Louisville (10-1) vs. Wake Forest (10-2): Georgia Tech quarterback Reggie Ball has looked awful in two of his past three games, which may give No. 17 Wake Forest enough to win the ACC. If No. 6 Louisville (10-1, 5-1 Big East) beats Connecticut (4-7, 1-5) at home Saturday and No. 13 Rutgers (10-1, 5-1) loses at No. 15 West Virginia (9-2, 4-2), Louisville wins the Big East. A Rutgers win gives it the title.
“Originally people were a little concerned about a Rutgers or a Louisville coming to the Orange Bowl,” Orange Bowl spokesman Jeff Puritan said, “but as committee members have gone up for site visits and discussions with Big East schools, we think they would bring a great matchup and a lot of fans and alumni to South Florida.”
Fiesta Bowl
Glendale, Ariz., Jan. 1
Boise State (12-0) vs. Oklahoma (10-2): Boise State is a lock, since it’s the smallest market and the Fiesta gets the last choice. However, Fiesta officials don’t think they get the booby prize. They remember two seasons ago when Utah, the only other school from a non-BCS conference to make a BCS bowl, brought 25,000 to 30,000 fans for its rout of Pittsburgh.
“It was an excellent experience,” Fiesta president John Junker said. “We’re using that as a little bit of a compass.”
Boise State will play the winner of No. 12 Oklahoma and No. 20 Nebraska (9-3), which meet Saturday in the Big 12 championship game.
John Henderson can be reached at 303-954-1299 or jhenderson@denverpost.com.
