Look up there. The AFC playoff scene.
It’s a Baltimore Raven (bird). It’s a New York Jet (plane). No, it’s the Broncos (the NFL’s newest underdogs) careening toward the bottom of postseason view.
To fully comprehend this frightening development, revert to the height of the Broncos’ fall. Just three games ago, the Broncos were 7-2, tied for the AFC West lead with San Diego and leading the Chargers by 17 points early in the third quarter. Finish out that game and the Broncos have a stranglehold on the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
It was at that point the Broncos fell. Hard. Now they are 7-5, tied with four other teams for the conference’s final two wild-card playoff spots.
If the season ended today, the NFL’s complicated tiebreaker system says the Broncos’ season would, indeed, end today. It can happen that fast.
“Three weeks ago we were driving the school bus,” Broncos defensive end Kenard Lang said. “Now we’re little kids riding on the bus. The best thing we can do is go to school and make sure we do all our work.”
Pinpointing the fall is easy. Explaining how it happened takes more time. A rugged schedule, devastating injuries, uncertainty at quarterback, inconsistencies in the running game and special teams and ineffective late-game defense all have played a part in the Broncos’ worst slump in three seasons.
Even more challenging, though, is figuring out a solution. Because as bad as it’s been, the season is salvageable. The Broncos probably need to win three of their final four regular-season games to reach the playoffs. Two of those games are against losing teams, Arizona and San Francisco.
Beating them still would leave the Broncos with the task of defeating the Chargers at San Diego on Sunday or the Cincinnati Bengals on Christmas Eve at Invesco Field at Mile High.
“Inside this locker room, the sky isn’t falling,” Broncos tight end Nate Jackson said. “We’re obviously disappointed. But we’re not freaking out or doubting ourselves. We know we have to win every game now, but we’re not worried that we can’t. It’s a matter of putting it all together.”
How can the Broncos put it all together when outside the teams’ Dove Valley locker room, all of Broncoland is freaking out?
Perhaps the most calming first step, even if it hurts, is to identify the causes of the three-game fall:
The quarterback situation: It wouldn’t be the NFL if blame didn’t start here. When Jake Plummer’s struggles continued in the Nov. 19 loss to the Chargers, speculation he was about to be replaced by rookie Jay Cutler intensified before the Thanksgiving game at Kansas City.
When the Broncos scored only 10 points while losing to the Chiefs on Nov. 23, Plummer was replaced by Cutler for the Sunday night game against Seattle. Cutler was shaky enough to create question about whether he’s ready for an NFL playoff race.
“That’s one of the reasons why I made the change last week,” Broncos coach Mike Shana- han said. “I thought he gave us the best chance to win. You make those decisions and you go on.”
Formidable opponents: Let the record show the Chargers, Chiefs and Seahawks, the opponents during Denver’s losing streak, are a combined 25-11.
“It’s hard to get wins in this league,” Broncos cornerback Darrent Williams said. “And it’s especially hard to get wins in November and December, because every player is fighting for jobs or teams are fighting for the playoffs.”
Injuries: In going 13-3 last season, the Broncos suffered only one season-ending injury, and that was to backup offensive lineman Dwayne Carswell.
This season, injuries have brought a premature season’s end to defensive end Courtney Brown, strong safety Nick Ferguson, nickel safety Sam Brandon, offensive tackle Matt Lepsis and fullback Cecil Sapp. All but Brandon were starters, and he often played a lot.
“When you lose a Nick Ferguson and also a Sam Brandon, who people don’t realize was a big key for us, it’s like we lost two starters,” Williams said. “And not getting Courtney back, I don’t think people understand how big an asset he was in stopping the run. And on offense, we lose our best tackle and now Cecil. It’s been one of those years.”
An erratic running game: In three NFL seasons, Broncos running back Tatum Bell has shown he has every-down, big-play ability, but has yet to prove he has primary-back durability.
Woeful special teams: The Broncos’ special teams would have received dramatically improved grades against Seattle – until Williams and Brian Clark fumbled fourth-quarter returns.
Defensive fatigue: Performing at historic levels through the first six games, the Broncos’ defense surrendered four touchdowns in the Chargers’ final four drives, 136 yards rushing in the second half to Larry Johnson and the Chiefs, and four scoring drives in the Seahawks’ final four possessions Sunday.
“You are what you are, and we just haven’t been able to do it,” Shanahan said.
What are the Broncos? They are 7-5. And falling.
Staff writer Mike Klis can be reached at 303-954-1055 or mklis@denverpost.com.
EYE ON …
The Chargers
DENVER AT SAN DIEGO, 2:15 p.m., Sunday
For the record: The Chargers are 10-2, lead the AFC West and can clinch at least a tie for the division title with a win. They hold a three-game lead over Denver and Kansas City with four games left.
Last game: Chargers won in the cold of Buffalo 24-21 on Sunday.
Streaking: San Diego has won six consecutive games. If the Broncos lose, it would mark their first four-game losing streak since the first four games of the 1999 season.
Who’s hot: Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson has 26 touchdowns this season and is two short of tying the NFL record for a season.
Who’s not: San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers had a rough day against the Bills and threw for only 160 yards.
Key stat: Even though San Diego ran only three more plays than Buffalo, its running attack allowed it to hold the ball almost nine more minutes than the Bills.
FYI: San Diego hasn’t swept Denver in a season series since 1982.
Injury update: Linebacker Randall Godfrey left the game Sunday with a left calf injury. Receiver Keenan McCardell also left departed after a left calf injury. Safety Clinton Hart suffered a high ankle sprain.
Line: San Diego by 7 1/2 points.
Coachspeak: “We really committed to defending the run against them because we felt that they were going to rush the ball on us. We did a pretty good job in that regard. The ability to control the running game, you kind of dictate events. It played out that way.”
– San Diego coach Marty Schottenheimer
Bill Williamson
