Just so you know, the Saints can earn a playoff berth today with a win at Dallas, plus losses by Carolina and Philadelphia and a loss or tie by Minnesota or a Saints win plus losses by Atlanta and the Giants and a Minnesota loss or tie or a Saints win plus losses by Atlanta and Philadelphia and a Minnesota loss or tie.
Did you get all that? Good. Because there will be a pop quiz in the next paragraph.
How about if we boil it all down to one sentence? If you want to make the playoffs, keep winning and ask questions later.
But then, it’s not about making the playoffs for the Chargers and Colts. They’re all but in. For them, it’s about securing the home-field advantage in January.
A few weeks ago, it looked like the unbeaten Colts were home free. Not anymore. By sunset, the road to the Super Bowl could run through San Diego, not Indianapolis.
The Colts, having lost two out of three, are 10-2 with a tough matchup at Jacksonville on today’s docket. The Chargers, also 10-2, play the Broncos at home. Yes, the same Broncos who’ve put rookie quarterback Jay Cutler in the driver’s seat.
A rookie quarterback facing that San Diego front seven on the road? That ought to be fun to watch. Unless, of course, your name is Jay Cutler.
Read Jim Armstrong’s Opening Shots on Sundays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays in The Denver Post sports section and on Mondays in NFL Monday. His previous columns are available online at www.denverpost.com
COUCH POTATO HEAVEN
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
11 a.m., Colts by 1 1/2
Last meeting: Colts won 21-14 at Indianapolis on Sept. 24.
Colts’ loss to Titans last week snapped 12-game “W” streak inside AFC South. … Peyton Manning not just another pretty face in a TV commercial. He has won eight out of 10 vs. Jags, with 20 TDs, five INTs. … Jax rookie Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging 5.3 yards on 95 carries with seven TDs. … Win or tie clinches division for Colts. … What’s that? Yeah, you’re right. So what else is new? … Jaguars fifth in league vs. run, Colts 32nd.
Prediction: Colts 27, Jaguars 23
Baltimore at Kansas City
11 a.m., Chiefs by 3
Last meeting: Chiefs won 27-24 at Baltimore on Oct. 4, 2004.
Chiefs’ come-from-ahead loss to Browns, in which they blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead, was enough to make former coach Dick Vermeil cry. … Ravens a league-best plus-14 in turnovers. Oh, and did we mention their “D” ranks No. 1 in the league, too? Well we just did. … K.C.’s Tony Gonzalez has 61 career TD catches, one away from tying Shannon Sharpe’s NFL record for TEs. … Brian Billick 0-3 career vs. Chiefs.
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Ravens 19
WORTH THE ELECTRICITY
New England at Miami
11 a.m., Patriots by 3 1/2
Last meeting: Patriots won 20-10 at New England on Oct. 8.
Must be the clothes: Bill Belichick 7-8 career vs. ‘Phins. … Not that Pats QB Tom Brady plays his best football when it matters most, but he’s won 13 of 14 in December. … Dolphins need to win out to have realistic shot at playoffs. Which, of course, is a nice way of saying they’re history. … N.E. CB Asante Samuel has four INTs in past two, leads league with seven. … Joey Harrington in two career games vs. N.E. D: 5 INTs, 0 TD passes.
Prediction: Pats 24, Dolphins 16
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets
2:15 p.m., Jets by 4
Last meeting: Jets won 28-20 at Buffalo on Sept. 24.
That spread. Four points or touchdowns? … Jets have won past four vs. Bills in Joisey. … We were W-R-O-N-G about the J-E-T-S. They’re, like, competing. Winning, even. … Don’t look now, but the two leading candidates for coach of the year could be rookies – Jets’ Eric Mangini, Saints’ Sean Payton. … Jets need one more dubya to double last year’s total. … The positive news for Bills? Well, um, how ’bout them Sabres!
Prediction: Jets 34, Bills 26
N.Y. Giants at Carolina
11 a.m., off board as of Thursday
Last meeting: Panthers won 37-24 at the Meadowlands on Dec. 28, 2003.
This just in. Giants QB Eli Manning, tired of media criticism for not living up to expectations, is considering changing his last name to Leaf. … Giants dead even in turnovers and, coincidentally, dead in the standings, too. … Say, didn’t you used to be Jake Delhomme? The Jakemeister ranks 31st among Not For Long QBs with a 54.2 passer rating on third down, including a 49.5 percent completion rate.
Prediction: Giants 13, Panthers 10
Chicago at St. Louis
6:30 p.m., Monday, Bears by 6
Last meeting: Rams won 23-21 at Chicago on Nov. 16, 2003.
Bears coach Lovie Smith was Rams’ D coordinator, asst. head coach before leaving for Chi Town. … Smith says Rex Grossman, he of the 17 INTs, is his starting QB until further notice. Like, say, halftime if Bears are trailing. … Rams’ Steven Jackson one of league’s more underrated players. He leads NFC with 1,650 scrimmage yards. … Rams’ biggest weakness. They’re 31st in da bid’ness in run D.
Prediction: Bears 23, Rams 20
Oakland at Cincinnati
11 a.m., Bengals by 11
Last meeting: Raiders won 23-20 at Oakland on Sept. 14, 2003.
Bengals on mini-roll with three straight W’s. Good thing. After this gimme, they’re off to Indy, then Denver. … For a guy coming off major knee surgery, Carson Palmer sure is gittin ‘er done. He’s second in AFC with 3,102 passing yards and is tied for league lead with 22 TD tosses. … Raiders’ new slogan: Commitment to Tee Times. … Randy Moss has moved into team lead in catches (40) and trade requests through the media (five).
Prediction: Bengals 30, Raiders 20
BEATS WASHING THE CAR
Tennessee at Houston
11 a.m., Texans by 1
Last meeting: Titans won 28-22 at Tennessee on Oct. 29.
Game marks homecoming for Houston native Vince Young, who has won five of first nine starts. If you knew that was going to happen, advance to Las Vegas and collect a casino. … David Carr leads league with 69.1 completion pct. And what has he gotten for his efforts? According to reports in Houston, he has final month of season to bail out his job. If not, Jake Plummer will be wearing a cowboy hat and driving a pickup next season. … Check it out. Titans plus-1 in turnovers with a rookie QB at the controls.
Prediction: Texans 32, Titans 23
Atlanta at Tampa Bay
11 a.m., Falcons by 3
Last meeting: Falcons won 14-3 at Atlanta on Sept. 17.
Dirty Bird QB Michael Vick runs better than your dad’s ’57 Chevy. Vick (929), Warrick Dunn (952) can become first teammates to crack 1,000-yard mark since 1985. … Why aren’t Falcons better than 6-6? Question is, why aren’t they worse? They’re 32nd in pass offense, 31st in pass defense. … Bucs racked up a FG at Pittsburgh last week. One more and city fathers were thinking about a parade down Main Street.
Prediction: Falcons 20, Buccaneers 10
Philadelphia at Washington
11 a.m., Eagles by 1 1/2
Last meeting: Redskins won 31-20 at Philadelphia on Jan. 1.
Joe Gibbs says he’ll be back next season as ‘Skins’ coach. Are you thinking what we’re thinking? Must be nice to be 4-8 and have options. … ‘Skins 28th in league in “D”, 18th in offense. Other than that, we’re talkin’ juggernaut, bubba. … Eagles QB Jeff Garcia not playing like backup he used to be: 6 TD passes, 0 INTs. … This just in. Eagles coach Andy Reid says, with their backs against the wall, his players have to take ’em one game at a time. And it wouldn’t be a bad idea if they gave 110 percent, either.
Prediction: Eagles 19, Redskins 17
Seattle at Arizona
2:05 p.m., Seahawks by 3
Last meeting: Seahawks won 21-10 at Seattle on Sept. 17.
Both teams coming off W’s. No really, we’re not making this up. The Cardinals won a freaking game. … Edgerrin James: 252 carries, 810 yards. Joseph Addai, who replaced him with Colts: 171, 845. But just so you know, Edge didn’t sign with Cards for the money. … What’s wrong with this picture? Cards (3-9) even in turnovers, Seahawks (8-4) minus-3. … Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck says “there’s a good feeling in the building.” Well, duh. Every team that gets to play ‘Zona has a good feeling.
Prediction: Seahawks 34, Cardinals 23
GET A LIFE, BUBBA
Minnesota at Detroit
11 a.m., Lions by 1 1/2
Last meeting: Vikings won 26-17 at Minnesota on Oct. 8.
Vikings in search of 10th straight win in series. But then, isn’t everyone who plays the Lions? … Minnie QB Brad Johnson by the numbers: eight TD passes, 14 INTs, zero job security. … Vikings scored 23 in fourth quarter for come-from-behind win in teams’ first meeting. … Lions’ Jon Kitna on pace for second 4,000-yard passing season in club history. Not bad for a guy who’s had the h knocked out of him this season. … Lions just 31st in league in rushing. Bummer since Matt Millen no doubt plans to use his next No. 1 on a WR.
Prediction: Vikings 20, Lions 19
Green Bay at San Francisco
2:05 p.m., 49ers by 4 1/2
Last meeting: Packers won 20-10 at Green Bay on Nov. 23, 2003.
We gave the Niners a little love last week, saying they were a legit playoff contender. So what happens? They get slapped around by the Saints. … Pack can relate. Green Bay faced 31-0 halftime deficit vs. Jets at Lambeau. … Pack just 29th in league in D, including 30th vs. the pass. … Packers coach Mike McCarthy was Niners’ Oh coordinator last season. … San Fran CB Walt Harris leads NFC with career-high six INTs.
Prediction: 49ers 37, Packers 30
