The New York Giants have lost six of their past seven games and have played worse than uninspired football for the entire second half of the season. Yet if they win Saturday night at Washington, they almost surely will make the playoffs.
That’s because the Giants control almost all the tiebreakers among the five 7-8 teams that are vying for the NFC’s last wild-card spot.
The Giants are tied with Green Bay for the best conference record at 6-5, and their strength of victory and strength of schedule is prohibitively better than the Packers.
The scenario is simpler in the AFC, where the Broncos and the New York Jets (both 9-6) just have to win and they get the fifth and sixth spots. Both are at home to Bay Area teams – the Jets to dismal Oakland (2-13) and the Broncos to improved but still-building San Francisco (6-9).
Because of all that mediocrity, 20 teams are alive going into the last weekend of the regular season, the most since 1970, when the NFL merged with the old AFL. Nine teams have clinched and 11 more are in the running for three berths, although some are real longshots.
No team with a losing record has made the NFL playoffs during a nonstrike season.
The NFC is a mess, in large part because the so-called “good” teams – the Giants, Carolina and defending conference champion Seattle – have been anything but, especially down the stretch.
Among those three, they have lost 11 of their past 15 games – and one of the wins was by New York over the Panthers. Seattle (8-7) is in the playoffs, backing in as champion of the NFC West last weekend when San Francisco lost to Arizona. But the Seahawks, who play at Tampa Bay on Sunday, have lost three straight, not the kind of momentum you want to take into the postseason.
The Giants’ scenario for the playoffs is simple. Beat Washington, then wait until Sunday for the right result in any of 10 other games. The chances of all 10 going against the Giants are astronomical.
The simplest would be the most obvious: a win by Dallas (9-6) over Detroit (2-13) at Texas Stadium.
The Cowboys will play hard in that one because they still have a chance to win the NFC East if Philadelphia (9-6) loses at home to Atlanta (7-8).
If the Giants lose, that opens it up to the other 7-8 teams.
Green Bay leads that group in tiebreakers, followed by Carolina, which is at NFC South winner New Orleans (10-5); Atlanta; and St. Louis, which is at Minnesota (6-9). The best chance for the Panthers is that the Saints rest players – they clinched a first-round bye Monday when the Eagles beat the Cowboys.
In the AFC, Cincinnati (8-7) has the best shot at a wild card if the Jets or Broncos lose.
The Bengals, who lost in Denver last weekend when the snap on what should have been a game-tying extra point was botched, get in if the Jets lose and they win at home over Pittsburgh. If the Broncos lose, the Bengals make it with a win and a win by Kansas City at home against Jacksonville.
The Chiefs, Jaguars and surprising Titans, all 8-7, also have shots but would need a lot of help to qualify.
The most remarkable of those is Tennessee, which started 0-5 but has won six straight with rookie Vince Young starring at quarterback. The Titans need to beat the AFC East champion Patriots at home, then have the Chiefs win and the Broncos and Bengals lose.
