Times like these call for tough decisions about motivational methods.
Should this be a moment when the fear of a blown season is instilled into the Broncos?
If so, nothing is scarier than the simple fact that if the Broncos lose Sunday at home to improved San Francisco and Kansas City wins at home against Jacksonville, Denver’s 2006 season is kaput. Finished before the calendar flips to 2007.
The miracle on Christmas Eve against Cincinnati, those impressive prime-time wins against Baltimore (12-3) and New England, (11-4), the sensational season- long performance by Champ Bailey and the emergence of the kid gunslinger, Jay Cutler, essentially would mean nothing.
“We’ve still got to grind,” Broncos safety John Lynch said. “The last two weeks, it hasn’t been perfect, and lots of corrections need to be made, but you can say we played well in all three phases. Not perfect, but we played well. We’ve dug ourselves out of this hole as a team.”
Perhaps, then, it would be more appropriate to congratulate the Broncos (9-6) on a job well done for winning their past two games, while reminding them one more victory would likely mean another trip to New England, instead of having to first stop by Indianapolis, where quarterback Peyton Manning and the RCA Dome lurk.
Whichever tack coach Mike Shanahan chooses this week, history suggests he will find the right words. Shanahan has led the Broncos into the final regular-season week four times with either a playoff berth or a home- vs.-road playoff game in the balance. The Broncos won all four games, by victory margins of 35, 29, 30 and 19 points.
An encouraging trend, to be sure. But as Mark McGwire might say, the problem with trends is they’re all about the past. The Broncos’ 38-9 thrashing of the 49ers to clinch a playoff berth in the final game of 2000 probably isn’t going to mean much to San Francisco’s Alex Smith, Frank Gore or Vernon Davis come Sunday at Invesco Field at Mile High.
“We knew two games ago that we had to run the table,” Shana- han said. “So every game has been like a playoff game to us. We knew we had to win at Arizona and we beat them. And we knew we had to win (Sunday) and we were fortunate enough to beat (the Bengals).”
And now the Broncos must make it three in a row, no easy task in this confounding season of NFL parity. Entering the final week, 20 teams have either clinched a playoff berth or remain in contention, the most since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.
Amazingly, and embarrassingly, five teams with 7-8 records are tied for the NFC’s final playoff spot. Not one of those teams can get in on a victory alone, although the New York Giants, who have lost six of their past seven games, have the best chance because they own most of the tiebreakers.
If the Giants lose, Green Bay would have the best chance. If the Packers lose, Carolina would have a shot. If the Giants, Packers and Panthers lose, St. Louis and Atlanta would have a shot.
If all five 7-8 teams lose this weekend, the NFL would have its first-ever losing team make the postseason.
It’s far less complicated in the AFC, where the Broncos and New York Jets need only to win Sunday to clinch the No. 5 and No. 6 playoff seeds, respectively.
When it comes to getting his team ready for a big game, Shanahan almost always relies on intensity of practice and preparation rather than impassioned speeches. But because his Broncos are coming off an emotional win against Cincinnati and are heavy favorites Sunday, Shana- han no doubt will remind his team how Gore is third in the NFL with more than 1,500 yards rushing, and how much Smith, the 49ers’ second-year quarterback, and rookie tight end Davis have improved in recent weeks.
Shanahan might not mention the 49ers have allowed an NFL- high 25.9 points per game, but he could remind his players that if they practice well and study hard, they should win.
Call it a motivational blend of caution and confidence that has served Shanahan well in getting the Broncos ready for these playoff-or-bust season finales.
Staff writer Mike Klis can be reached at 303-954-1055 or mklis@denverpost.com.
Playoff scenarios
Depending on what happens this weekend, the Broncos will finish with the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs, the No. 6 seed or be kept out of the playoffs. How it could shake out:
NO. 5 SEED:
If Broncos beat San Francisco or Chiefs lose at home to Jacksonville and Jets lose at home to Oakland.
First-round opponent:
Most likely at New England.
Colts at Indianapolis if Patriots win at Tennessee and Indy loses at home to Miami.
NO. 6 SEED:
If Broncos lose to San Francisco, Chiefs lose to Jacksonville and Jets win.
First-round opponent:
At Indianapolis, if Colts and Baltimore both win, or if Baltimore, Indy and Pats all lose.
At Baltimore, if Ravens lose at home to Buffalo and Indianapolis wins.
At New England, if Pats win and Colts lose.
ELIMINATED:
Broncos lose to 49ers and K.C. beats Jaguars.
Historical help
This is the fifth time the Mike Shanahan-coached Broncos have entered the final week with a playoff berth or a higher seed at stake. The Broncos won the previous four games, by an average margin of 28 points, although they were eliminated from the playoffs in 2002 when they learned before kickoff that Cleveland had defeated Atlanta.
Year Opp. Result Rec.
1997 Chargers W, 38-3 12-4
2000 49ers W, 38-9 11-5
2002 Cardinals W, 37-7 9-7
2004 Colts W, 33-14 10-6
