Forgive the St. Louis Cardinals if the potshots at their record don’t sting. They are still numb from celebrating their first World Series title since 1982. The Cardinals reacted to a championship with restraint, piecing together their rotation with vagabonds and reclamation projects. The Cubs and Astros, meanwhile, opened the vault, spending more than $400 million on free agents. In a wide-open division, the team that improves its starting pitching during the season will escape.
1. St. Louis Cardinals | 83-78, first
LINEUP (’06 average)
SS David Eckstein .292
LF Chris Duncan .293
1B Albert Pujols .331
3B Scott Rolen .296
CF Jim Edmonds .257
RF Preston Wilson .263
C Yadier Molina .216
2B Adam Kennedy .273
ROTATION (’06 ERA)
RHP Chris Carpenter 3.09
RHP Kip Wells 6.50
RHP Anthony Reyes 5.06
RHP A. Wainwright 3.12
RHP Braden Looper 3.56
CLOSER (’06 saves)
Jason Isringhausen 33
MANAGER
Tony La Russa
IN FOCUS
Don’t forget this team can hit. At the local piano bar down the street from the ballpark, they changed the words of Don McLean’s “American Pie” from “Father, Son and the Holy Ghost” to “Edmonds, Rolen and Albert Pujols.” And remember, Tony La Russa maximizes his bench better than anyone else.
IN DARKROOM
Two transitions define the Cardinals’ pitching staff as Adam Wainwright returns to starting and Braden Looper, exclusively a reliever, joins a projected rotation that had 23 wins last season. Other organizations would lose fingernails over such an experiment, but with pitching coach Dave Duncan in charge, such a maneuver would be surprising only if it didn’t work.
PERFECT IMAGE
Albert Pujols continues walking on the moving escalator to the Hall of Fame with an MVP season. With the lineup steady, Chris Carpenter and Wainwright combine for 35 victories, and both finish in the top five of the Cy Young Award voting.
2. Houston Astros | 82-80, second
LINEUP (’06 average)
2B Craig Biggio .246
CF Chris Burke .276
1B Lance Berkman .315
LF Carlos Lee .300
3B Morgan Ensberg .235
RF Luke Scott .336
SS Adam Everett .239
C Brad Ausmus .230
ROTATION (’06 ERA)
RHP Roy Oswalt 2.98
RHP Jason Jennings 3.78
RHP Woody Williams 3.65
LHP W. Rodriguez 5.64
RHP Matt Albers 6.00
CLOSER (’06 saves)
Brad Lidge 32
MANAGER
Phil Garner
IN FOCUS
Houston had a problem. The Astros didn’t hit enough. So in the offseason, they maxed out the credit card for Carlos Lee with a six-year, $100 million contract. They also traded three players for pitcher Jason Jennings. Lee and Lance Berkman give Houston one of the best 3-4 punches in baseball.
IN DARKROOM
The Roger Clemens drama is tired, but it remains relevant. If Clemens returns – again – Houston gets a pitcher better than any team will acquire at the trading deadline.
PERFECT IMAGE
Chris Burke goes off offensively as the everyday center fielder. Brad Lidge returns to his 2005 form, Jennings wins 15 games and Clemens pitches the team into playoffs.
3. Chicago Cubs | 66-96, sixth
LINEUP (’06 average)
CF Alfonso Soriano .277
LF Matt Murton .297
1B Derrek Lee .286
3B Aramis Ramirez .291
RF Jacque Jones .285
C Michael Barrett .307
2B Mark DeRosa .296
SS Cesar Izturis .245
ROTATION (’06 ERA)
RHP C. Zambrano 3.41
LHP Ted Lilly 4.31
RHP Jason Marquis 6.02
LHP Rich Hill 4.17
RHP Wade Miller 4.57
CLOSER (’06 saves)
Ryan Dempster 24
MANAGER
Lou Piniella
IN FOCUS
After a $300 million-plus binge on 10 players and a manager, there’s no question the Cubs are better. Alfonso Soriano is a threat to win MVP honors and Ted Lilly will help a staff that for too long depended on the health of Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.
IN DARKROOM
The rotation is thin. They gave Jason Marquis, a pitcher the Cardinals left off their playoff roster, $21 million.
PERFECT IMAGE
Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Soriano play monster mash at Wrigley Field. Ryan Dempster is known more for his closing than his practical jokes. Lou Piniella walks into the sunset as the manager who overcame a century of curses, goats, fires and Bartman.
4. Milwaukee Brewers | 75-87, fourth
LINEUP (’06 average)
2B Rickie Weeks .279
C Johnny Estrada .302
1B Prince Fielder .271
CF Bill Hall .270
LF Geoff Jenkins .271
RF Corey Hart .283
SS J.J. Hardy .242
3B Craig Counsell .255
ROTATION (’06 ERA)
RHP Ben Sheets 3.82
LHP Chris Capuano 4.03
RHP Jeff Suppan 4.12
RHP Dave Bush 4.41
RHP Claudio Vargas 4.83
CLOSER (’06 saves)
Francisco Cordero 22
MANAGER
Ned Yost
IN FOCUS
The Brewers were ravaged by injuries to their pitching staff that sabotaged their season. The addition of Jeff Suppan provides a rudder, particularly if Ben Sheets can’t stay on the mound.
IN DARKROOM
Going young is easy. Going young and getting good is the hard part. The Brewers need the double-play combination of J.J. Hardy and Rickie Weeks to reach their potential.
PERFECT IMAGE
Sheets isn’t a walking HMO co-pay, anchoring a rotation that turns the Brewers into this year’s Tigers. The offense finds its stride after killing the team on the road last season.
5. Cincinnati Reds | 80-82, third
LINEUP (’06 average)
CF Ryan Freel .271
2B Brandon Phillips .276
RF Ken Griffey Jr. .252
LF Adam Dunn .234
3B E. Encarnacion .276
1B Scott Hatteberg .289
SS Alex Gonzalez .251
C David Ross .255
ROTATION (’06 ERA)
RHP Aaron Harang 3.76
RHP Bronson Arroyo 3.29
LHP Eric Milton 5.19
RHP Kyle Lohse 5.83
RHP Matt Belisle 3.60
CLOSER (’06 saves)
Dave Weathers 12
MANAGER
Jerry Narron
IN FOCUS
The Reds’ top three starters provide hope for a once-proud franchise that stayed in the division race until the final week last season. Aaron Harang, who led the National League in strikeouts, is one of baseball’s most underappreciated pitchers.
IN DARKROOM
Josh Hamilton, the most celebrated Rule V pick ever, was the feel-good story of camp, showing off the remarkable ability that had scouts drooling before his career went on hiatus because of a drug addiction.
PERFECT IMAGE
Ken Griffey Jr. embraces the move to right field. Shortstop Alex Gonzalez wins a Gold Glove, quietly helping a pitching staff suffering from whiplash caused by the Great American Small Park.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates | 67-95, fifth
LINEUP (’06 average)
CF Chris Duffy.255
SS Jack Wilson .273
3B Freddy Sanchez .344
1B Adam LaRoche .285
LF Jason Bay .286
RF Xavier Nady .280
C Ronny Paulino .310
2B Jose Castillo .253
ROTATION (’06 ERA)
LHP Zach Duke 4.47
RHP Ian Snell 4.74
LHP Paul Maholm 4.76
LHP Tom Gorzelanny 3.79
RHP T. Armas Jr. 5.03
CLOSER (’06 saves)
Salomon Torres 12
MANAGER
Jim Tracy
IN FOCUS
Team trumpeted 37-35 finish as evidence it is improved. The pitching staff has four good young arms, all of whom are under control for at least three more years. That’s a solid foundation for a rebuilding project.
IN DARKROOM
Fans are tired of waiting, burned by mercenary veterans and failed pitching prospects. Franchise hasn’t had a winning season since 1992.
PERFECT IMAGE
Adam LaRoche, out of the Braves’ spotlight, could easily post 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Freddy Sanchez is last year’s NL batting champion, a trivia question that will stump almost anyone. If the Pirates pitch consistently well in long stretches, 75 wins are possible.
