Ryan Howard, right, looks big, hits big, thinks big. Asked about this year’s expectations, he said, “We are tired of being on the other side of the fence, looking over. It’s time for us to reach the playoffs.” The Phillies, even with their squeamish bullpen, should hit enough to tame the Mets, whose rotation will scare no one until Pedro Martinez returns this summer. The Braves could surprise, but they are at the mercy of Mike Hampton’s health.
1. St. Louis Cardinals | 83-78, first
LINEUP (’06 average)
SS David Eckstein .292
LF Chris Duncan .293
1B Albert Pujols .331
3B Scott Rolen .296
CF Jim Edmonds .257
RF Preston Wilson .263
C Yadier Molina .216
2B Adam Kennedy .273
ROTATION (’06 ERA)
RHP Chris Carpenter 3.09
RHP Kip Wells 6.50
RHP Anthony Reyes 5.06
RHP A. Wainwright 3.12
RHP Braden Looper 3.56
CLOSER (’06 saves)
Jason Isringhausen 33
MANAGER
Tony La Russa
IN FOCUS
Don’t forget this team can hit. At the local piano bar down the street from the ballpark, they changed the words of Don McLean’s “American Pie” from “Father, Son and the Holy Ghost” to “Edmonds, Rolen and Albert Pujols.” And remember, Tony La Russa maximizes his bench better than anyone else.
IN DARKROOM
Two transitions define the Cardinals’ pitching staff as Adam Wainwright returns to starting and Braden Looper, exclusively a reliever, joins a projected rotation that had 23 wins last season. Other organizations would lose fingernails over such an experiment, but with pitching coach Dave Duncan in charge, such a maneuver would be surprising only if it didn’t work.
PERFECT IMAGE
Albert Pujols continues walking on the moving escalator to the Hall of Fame with an MVP season. With the lineup steady, Chris Carpenter and Wainwright combine for 35 victories, and both finish in the top five of the Cy Young Award voting.
2. New York Mets | 97-65, first
LINEUP (’06 average)
SS Jose Reyes .300
3B David Wright .311
CF Carlos Beltran .275
1B Carlos Delgado .265
LF Moises Alou .301
C Paul Lo Duca .318
RF Shawn Green .277
2B Jose Valentin .271
ROTATION (’06 ERA)
LHP Tom Glavine 3.82
RHP O. Hernandez 4.66
RHP John Maine 3.60
LHP Oliver Perez 6.55
RHP Mike Pelfrey 5.48
CLOSER (’06 saves)
Billy Wagner 40
MANAGER
Willie Randolph
IN FOCUS
Every player in the lineup, save for Jose Valentin, has an all-star appearance on his résumé. There’s plenty of thunder to score runs, with four potential MVP candidates in Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado.
IN DARKROOM
There are enough questions surrounding the rotation to believe the Phillies will overtake the Mets. The only reliable member is Tom Glavine, who will reach 300 wins this season.
PERFECT IMAGE
The Mets hang around long enough for Pedro Martinez to rescue them with a brilliant final two months. Reyes establishes himself as baseball’s most electrifying player.
3. Atlanta Braves | 79-83, third
LINEUP (’06 average)
2B Kelly Johnson –
SS Edgar Renteria .293
3B Chipper Jones .324
CF Andruw Jones .262
C Brian McCann .333
RF Jeff Francoeur .260
1B Scott Thorman .234
LF Ryan Langerhans .241
ROTATION (’06 ERA)
RHP John Smoltz 3.49
RHP Tim Hudson 4.86
LHP Chuck James 3.78
LHP Mark Redman 5.71
RHP Lance Cormier 4.89
CLOSER (’06 saves)
Bob Wickman 33
MANAGER
Bobby Cox
IN FOCUS
When the bullpen door opened last season, lava spilled onto the field. The Braves went to great lengths to fortify their relief corps, re-signing Bob Wickman and acquiring Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano.
IN DARKROOM
Adam LaRoche was famous for concentration lapses and home run laps. Atlanta will attempt to replace the first baseman with a platoon of Craig Wilson and Scott Thorman.
PERFECT IMAGE
If the rotation pitches as well as it did last year, Atlanta could easily make the playoffs with the improved bullpen. Already, some are predicting an MVP performance for Andruw Jones, who is in the “walk” year of his contract.
4. Florida Marlins | 78-84, fourth
LINEUP (’06 average)
SS Hanley Ramirez .292
2B Dan Uggla .282
3B Miguel Cabrera .339
LF Josh Willingham .277
1B Mike Jacobs .262
C Miguel Olivo .263
RF Jeremy Hermedia .251
CF Eric Reed .098
ROTATION (’06 ERA)
LHP Dontrelle Willis 3.87
LHP Scott Olsen 4.04
RHP Anibal Sanchez 2.83
RHP Ricky Nolasco 4.82
RHP Sergio Mitre 5.18
CLOSER (’06 saves)
RHP Jorge Julio 16
MANAGER
Fredi Gonzalez
IN FOCUS
Fredi Gonzalez, late of the Atlanta Braves, is everything Joe Girardi is not. Which is to say he’s not a taskmaster willing to fight with the front office. While Girardi was criticized, the true judge of his success will be through comparison to Gonzalez.
IN DARKROOM
The Marlins go into the season without a proven center fielder. Florida solved its closer issue by acquiring Jorge Julio from Arizona a week before the season opener.
PERFECT IMAGE
The kids continue their development, going from impact players to stars, matching the ascent of Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla last season. Dontrelle Willis rebounds with 18 wins after not having his scheduled interrupted by the WBC.
5. Washington Nationals | 71-91, fifth
LINEUP (’06 average)
2B Felipe Lopez .274
SS Cristian Guzman –
3B Ryan Zimmerman .287
RF Austin Kearns .264
CF Ryan Church .276
1B Dmitri Young .250
C Brian Schneider .256
LF Chris Snelling .250
ROTATION (’06 ERA)
RHP John Patterson 4.43
RHP Shawn Hill 4.66
RHP J. Simontacchi –
LHP Matt Chico –
RHP Jerome Williams 7.30
CLOSER (’06 saves)
Chad Cordero 29
MANAGER
Manny Acta
IN FOCUS
The Nationals have wisely begun trying to restock a depleted farm system, leaving them in a better position when their new stadium opens. Ryan Zimmerman is a superstar in waiting, but the rotation is John Patterson and the Unknowns.
IN DARKROOM
If first baseman Nick Johnson can return from a badly broken leg, the middle of the order could cause damage. Johnson is a tough out who walks a lot when he doesn’t hit.
PERFECT IMAGE
If GM Jim Bowden avoids a replay of the Alfonso Soriano drama and doesn’t overplay his hand with closer Chad Cordero, he could bring back a haul for the right-hander and should strongly consider trading him to fill multiple holes.
