Port St. Lucie, Fla. – Traffic backs up for 2 miles on the Interstate 95 south exit. Parking at Tradition Field costs $10.
“Hope you have tickets, because it’s sold out,” screams a stadium usher as a fan doles out $50 to a scalper for a seat behind home plate to watch a rematch of the National League Championship Series between the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals.
Commissioner Bud Selig is right. Baseball is bathing in cash, setting attendance records and creating goodwill with labor peace.
And yet, the past six years have proved money can’t buy a championship. There has been a different World Series king each season, and not once during this time has the team with the highest payroll worn the crown.
It is that paradox that illustrates baseball’s big picture. Teams that win spend wisely, not just big.
“Having the biggest payroll is not a guarantee. We have proven that,” New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter said. “Look at some of the teams that have won: the White Sox, the Angels, the Marlins. We know we will always be competitive, that we are expected to win it every year. But that doesn’t mean it will happen.”
The World Series champion Cardinals and the last-place Chicago Cubs, bitter division rivals, illustrate the differing approaches created by baseball’s widespread financial enrichment. The Cardinals, perennial contenders, watch their dollars closely. The Cubs have not.
The Cubs were bad last season but spent a lot of money, finishing last in the National League Central. This season, the Cubs are determined to be good by spending even more money.
They brought in a new center fielder, Alfonso Soriano, for $136 million, kept third baseman Aramis Ramirez for $75 million and solidified their rotation with left-hander Ted Lilly, who agreed to a $40 million contract hours after Cubs general manager Jim Hendry suffered a mild heart attack.
“We had to fill a lot of holes. We lost 96 games last year,” Hendry said.
No signing better represented the philosophical chasm between the rival teams than the case of pitcher Jason Marquis. The Cardinals thought so little of Marquis and his 6.02 ERA that they left him off their playoff roster and made no attempt to keep him. The Cubs gave Marquis a $21 million deal, part of a $300 million offseason outlay when counting new manager Lou Piniella’s contract.
Walt Jocketty, general manager of the Cardinals, countered by signing pitcher Mark Mulder ($11 million) and second baseman Adam Kennedy ($10 million), preferring not to complicate the team’s future finances with long-term deals.
“We place a value on a player, and if the market creates a higher value, we have to have the financial discipline to walk away,” Jocketty said. “You don’t want to pay $100 million for a player for one or two good years, then spend the rest of time trying to get rid of the contract.”
That was Selig’s reminder at the owners’ meetings last winter. Yes, baseball grossed $5.2 billion in revenues last season. No, he said, that shouldn’t be a license for extravagance befitting an MTV “Sweet 16” birthday party. For the first time as commissioner, he called out specific teams, including the Kansas City Royals, whose five-year, $55 million contract given to mediocre pitcher Gil Meche ranked as the most chilling of the offseason.
“It’s never been my philosophy to go out and spend big in free agency,” San Diego Padres general manager Kevin Towers said. “You can make such big mistakes in terms of years and dollars. You’re less likely to make those mistakes with your own players, because you know them better.”
“Parity is real”
The Rockies have adopted a homegrown approach, reinventing themselves as a small-market team after the disastrous signings of Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle that set the franchise back for years. The Rockies paid $175.3 million for the two pitchers, who went a combined 40-51. The Rockies haven’t signed a single marquee free agent – reliever LaTroy Hawkins was this season’s big splash at $3.5 million – since that failed experiment after the 2000 season.
The lack of big-dollar signings has left the Rockies easy targets for criticism within an industry where deep pockets make winning much easier but are no guarantee. The past two collective bargaining agreements – a new one was struck this past offseason – have provided hope for the proletariats. There have been 17 different playoff teams since 1997 with payrolls below the league average. Fourteen different teams have participated in the World Series since 1995.
“I think parity is real. Few teams can reasonably expect to exceed 90 wins, and few have virtually no chance at the playoffs,” Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes said. “I do think the CBA, the quality of the some of the front offices and the hope of surprise teams has made each season more balanced and unpredictable.”
Even the Yankees, who have spent more than $1 billion on player salaries since they won their most recent World Series title in 2000, have changed their philosophy. Now the Yankees are holding onto their prospects longer and attempting to get younger. They haven’t increased payroll for two consecutive seasons.
“As this core gets older, you see (general manager Brian) Cashman trying to keep a younger nucleus intact with Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera and (Chien-Ming) Wang,” Yankees first baseman Jason Giambi said. “They don’t need to sign every free agent anymore. It’s about adding one piece here and there.”
A different plan
The Oakland Athletics and Minnesota Twins are trotted out as the counter-examples to the Yankees and Boston Red Sox. They are two franchises that have consistently succeeded despite payrolls in the middle or lower half of the American League. Oakland GM Billy Beane and Minnesota GM Terry Ryan have combined to lead their franchises to nine playoff appearances in recent years. They are revered for their resourcefulness, brilliance and good fortune.
“Every team that doesn’t spend a lot wants to be like them,” Pittsburgh Pirates GM Dave Littlefield said. “But it’s not easy.”
The Twins, as Texas Rangers assistant GM Thad Levine pointed out, have fostered unprecedented front-office loyalty and continuity. The A’s have been using their fiscally responsible model for nearly 20 years since Sandy Alderson was in charge.
“It started with Sandy, and now Billy instills that discipline from the GM chair,” A’s assistant GM David Forst said. “As tempting as it is to compete for big-name free agents, you look at the track record and past history of how those decisions have turned out. It might be impossible without Billy at the top, given the confidence he has in the philosophy and the people in the organization.”
This isn’t to suggest rubbing nickels together and relying on the farm system is fail proof. Every team in the bottom third of payroll last season had a losing record, including the Rockies.
Yet the Cardinals won the World Series despite winning just 83 regular-season games. They weren’t a great club, and more important for fans wanting to cling to optimism, they weren’t the Yankees.
The message: It’s not about money, but efficiency. Teams have to spend. But it’s how they spend, not how much.
“I don’t think money will ever totally be a nonfactor,” Forst said. “If you don’t have it, the margin for error is always going to be small. But teams that have won it over the last few years have proven that you can compete.”
VEGAS ODDS
Spring is a time for fans and teams to dream. Las Vegas takes a more sobering look at the chances for titles. Here’s a look at how the Las Vegas Hilton, the world’s largest sports book, predicted the over-under for victories before spring training began:
National League
WEST
Team Wins
Dodgers 88.5
Padres 84.5
Giants 81.5
Diamondbacks 77.5
Rockies 74.5
EAST
Team Wins
Phillies 88
Mets 87.5
Braves 80.5
Marlins 78.5
Nationals 66.5
CENTRAL
Team Wins
Cubs 85.5
Cardinals 84.5
Brewers 81.5
Astros 78.5
Reds 76.5
Pirates 71.5
American League
WEST
Team Wins
Angels 89.5
Athletics 84.5
Rangers 82.5
Mariners 75.5
EAST
Team Wins
Yankees 96.5
Red Sox 90.5
Blue Jays 86.5
Orioles 73.5
Devil Rays 67
CENTRAL
Team Wins
Tigers 86.5
White Sox 86.5
Indians 84.5
Twins 83.5
Royals 67
IN FOCUS?
All teams leave spring training believing their season will come into focus. But the game is littered with players who are overexposed, who fail to live up to the hype. In contrast, there are plenty of off-radar names who are much more meaningful to their teams than the national perception suggests. Denver Post national baseball writer Troy E. Renck takes a peek:
Overexposed
Mark Prior Cubs Won 18 games in 2003, 18 since
Kerry Wood Cubs Won 14 games in 2003, 12 since
Austin Kearns Nationals Has never hit 25 HRs or driven in 100 runs
Oliver Perez Mets 2.98 ERA in 2004, never under 5.85 since
Adam Dunn Reds .234 average, 194 strikeouts last year
Jason Marquis Cubs 6.02 ERA last year, nonfactor in October
Kevin Millar Orioles He’s a part-time DH-1B
Adrian Beltre Mariners 48 homers in 2004, 44 since
Carl Pavano Yankees Bust since signing $39.5 million contract
Josh Beckett Red Sox Had 5-plus ERA, allowed 36 HRs last year
Underexposed
Placido Polanco Tigers Glue in lineup, hit .396 with RISP last year
Erik Bedard Orioles 15 wins, 171 strikeouts last season
Dan Haren A’s Held opposition to .301 OBP last season
Adam Everett Astros Only seven errors as SS in 149 games
Garrett Atkins Rockies Tied for most hits in baseball in second half
Freddy Sanchez Pirates The unknown NL batting champion
Aaron Harang Reds The unknown NL strikeout king last season
John Lackey Angels Only Santana had more quality starts in AL
Bill Hall Brewers 35 HRs last year, switching from SS to CF
Michael Barrett Cubs Catcher with power, leadership qualities
MONEY TRAIL
Denver Post national baseball writer Troy E. Renck looks at the big and small spenders (in millions) this offseason and their goals:
Top 10
Cubs $297.5 End 99-year World Series drought
Giants $208.5 Land Barry Zito to make one last run with Barry Bonds
Red Sox $170.8 Revive rivalry with Evil Empire
Dodgers $126.9 Win first playoff series since 1988
Astros $115.0 Claim first world title with Carlos Lee’s help
Orioles $80.2 Finish somewhere besides fourth in the AL East
Angels $76.2 Steal headlines from the hated Dodgers
Royals $62.2 Regain relevance (but with Gil Meche?)
Yankees $61.2 Win World Series with more balanced business plan
Rangers $58.7 Stockpile young pitching for long competitive run
Bottom 10
Rockies $10.9 Add complementary pieces to core group
Devil Rays $7.7 Spend less now to pay more to young players later
Twins $7.3 Piecing together a rotation with Ortiz, Ponson
Tigers $6.5 Slight tweaks to show last season wasn’t a fluke
Pirates $5.4 Fill out roster around young starters
White Sox $4.6 Saved money to re-sign pitcher Javier Vazquez
Braves $3.6 Passed on free agents, filled out bullpen with trades
Marlins $0.9 Add a few veterans for position-player depth
Nationals $0.5 Stacked roster with cheap minor-league contracts
D-backs $0 Exercise discipline while paying off deferrals
– Source: ESPN
2000 REDUX
With baseball teams spending more than a billion dollars on free agents this past offseason, it brought back memories of the 2000 free-agent class, when the sport went bonkers. The big contracts dished out then provide a cautionary tale. The Rockies’ franchise, for example, was paralyzed for years by the Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle contracts. Since that time, Colorado has not signed a marquee free agent. Post national baseball writer Troy E. Renck looks into the past and future dollars:
2000
(Player, Team, Years, Millions, Fallout)
Alex Rodriguez Rangers 10 $252.0 Eventually traded to Yankees
Manny Ramirez Red Sox 8 $168.0 Endless drama and hits
Mike Hampton Rockies 8 $123.8 Paid $50M for 21-28 record
Darren Dreifort Dodgers 5 $55.0 Went 9-15 with 4.68 ERA
Denny Neagle Rockies 5 $51.5 Went 19-23 with 5.57 ERA
2006
(Player, Team, Years, Millions, Fallout)
Alfonso Soriano Cubs 8 $139.0 Most dynamic free agent
Barry Zito Giants 7 $126.0 Largest pitching contract ever
Carlos Lee Astros 6 $100.0 Reliable 30-HR, 100-RBI man
Aramis Ramirez Cubs 5 $75.5 Big bat, shaky attitude
J.D. Drew Red Sox 5 $70.0 Final two years can be voided
Gil Meche Mariners 5 $55.0 Went 11-8 last season
Daisuke Matsuzaka Red Sox 6 $52.0 Throws 96 at 26 years old
Gary Matthews Jr. Angels 5 $50.3 Hit the market at right time
Jason Schmidt Dodgers 3 $47.0 Dominant when healthy
Juan Pierre Dodgers 5 $44.5 Pesky leadoff hitter, no power
ENVELOPES PLEASE
National baseball writer Troy E. Renck makes his fearless playoff predictions, along with individual award winners:
National League
MVP – Alfonso Soriano, Cubs
CY YOUNG – Derek Lowe, Dodgers
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – Chris Young, Diamondbacks
PLAYOFFS – Dodgers beat Mets; Phillies beat Cardinals
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES – Dodgers beat Phillies
American League
MVP – Manny Ramirez, Red Sox
CY YOUNG – John Lackey, Angels
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox
PLAYOFFS – Yankees beat Tigers; Red Sox beat Angels
CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES – Yankees beat Red Sox
WORLD SERIES: Yankees beat Dodgers
SPRING SNAPSHOTS
Richie Rich
Rich Harden is listed at 6-feet-1, 195 pounds. He appears much smaller, making his electric stuff all the more remarkable. With apologies to Daisuke Matsuzaka, Harden was the most dominant pitcher I saw this spring. He throws a split-fingered pitch that borders on unfair. Released from a fastball arm slot, the ball is about 3 inches from where the hitter figures it will be when he swings. “Just filthy,” Rockies all-star Matt Holliday said.
Paps to the Pen
Give the Red Sox and Jonathan Papelbon credit for eschewing stubbornness and recognizing the obvious. Papelbon was shifted back to the closer role because the Red Sox don’t have any better options. There is an injury concern given Papelbon’s shoulder issues. The key is for manager Terry Francona to more closely monitor the kid’s workload – specifically his pitch counts.
So-So Sosa
Sammy Sosa brought hype and a slow bat into the Rangers’ training camp. But as the spring progressed, he began flashing signs that he will contribute this season. Don’t get delusional. His days as a star are so over. Still, he could hit 15 home runs as a DH against left-handed pitching, a nice pickup for $500,000.
Arms race
Watching every team in the National League West, it’s chilling how good the starting pitching is. Every team but the Rockies has two legitimate No. 1s, creating inspired matchups all summer. What about Barry Zito vs. Randy Johnson? Or Jason Schmidt opposite Greg Maddux? The Rockies will get Brandon Webb at Coors Field on Monday, then face Schmidt in the Dodgers’ home opener and Maddux in the Padres’ home opener.
Turtle Snell
Looking for a pitcher who could save your fantasy team by eating up innings and winning 15 games? How about Pittsburgh’s Ian Snell? He quietly struck out 169 batters last season and oozes confidence. If Zach Duke and Snell gain traction, Pittsburgh could reach 75 wins. That’s progress for this franchise.
Saving Power Ryan
Be prepared to cut Phillies slugger Ryan Howard some slack this season. There’s no way he reaches 58 home runs this year, unless Philadelphia upgrades from Pat Burrell as the primary protection behind him. Here’s a thought: What about moving Jimmy Rollins to the fifth spot? He has deceiving power, particularly in the Phillies’ home park.
There’s hope in K.C.
The Royals are in the wrong division to make a U-turn. They could play better this season and still lose 100 games. That said, Alex Gordon is the most athletic young player I saw this spring. The third baseman from the University of Nebraska enters as the AL favorite for rookie of the year.
Ichiro on the go
Keep an eye peeled on Seattle’s Ichiro Suzuki. For starters, he is making the transition to center field. He’s also a free agent at season’s end and is openly talking about exploring the market. This means if the Mariners fall out of contention by July, he will be one of the most prized trading-deadline targets.
Wait till, um, this year?
The Chicago Cubs spent millions in hopes of returning to contender status. This has buyer’s remorse written all over it, namely with the pitchers they landed (Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis) for $61 million. Yet, the NL Central figures to be wide open so an MVP performance from Alfonso Soriano and a midseason return of Mark Prior could keep the team intriguing through September.
Troy E. Renck can be reached at 303-954-1301 or trenck@denverpost.com.
