The Western United States could face a grim future of drought, melting mountain snow packs, increased forest fires and insect infestations because of global warming, a group of international climate scientists said Friday.
In advance of a 1,572-page report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the contributing scientists said the West is beginning to experience a dual crisis of dramatic population increases combined with soaring temperatures.
“Nature’s water reservoir in the West will be much diminished because of melting snow packs and drought, while at the same time, there will be many more people needing the water,” said Dr. Linda Mearns, one of more than 2,500 scientists who contributed to the report summary released Friday in Brussels, Belgium.
“And it’s not just drinking water. Recreation, including the ski industry, will take a hit,” she said.
The scientists said they used both empirical data and computer models to reach their conclusions, which marked the first time the panel has considered the local impact of climate change.
Dr. Steve Torbit, Director of the Rocky Mountain Natural Resource Center, said he worried not only that global warming would deprive the Rocky Mountain West of water and spark more forest fires, but would create unpredictable consequences, such as the extinction of additional species because of new exotic pests.
“No one could have predicted years ago how bad the bark beetle problem would become,” he said, referring to the report’s conclusion that global warming has increased the number of the insects, which have ravaged Western forests.
“New types of insects may thrive here as the Earth warms,” he said.
Friday’s summary followed an IPCC report released in February that said that scientists are more than “90 percent” sure that humans are the cause of global warming.
Along with describing the impact of greenhouse gas accumulations in the West, the summary said parts of the world such as sub-Saharan Africa could face increased flooding, starvation and severe heat waves, although Northern Europe and other areas could benefit from increased rainfall and reduced deaths from cold.
The Bush administration said Friday the report confirmed its efforts to increase renewable fuels in the economy. But the administration declined to back mandatory emission caps on carbon dioxide emissions, which have been called for by many parties as a way to reduce warming.
Other politicians criticized the report’s political process, after reports surfaced that government negotiators from more than 100 countries battled with scientists about the summary’s wording.
“The IPCC closely resembles a convention platform battle – not a scientific process,” said Marc Morano, a spokesperson for Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla. “(This) summary will spawn another round of media hype.”
Scientists supportive of the findings countered that the report’s predictions come with more than 90 percent certainty, since they are based on data from the recent past using data such as glacier measurements, rather than just computer projections.
“We’ve already seen the impact for years in the West, and now the entire scientific community has caught on,” said Torbit. “We could be headed for a repeat of the Dust Bowl.”
The final IPCC report on the impact of climate change will be released later this month, followed by a report with recommendations on reducing greenhouse gases.
