Fort Collins – Colorado State University hurricane researcher William Gray’s revised forecast issued this morning calls for a very active season, with nine hurricanes, five of them becoming intense.
The forecast calls for 17 named storms in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30 and a 74 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the U.S. coastline.
The revised forecast is virtually identical to the prediction Gray’s team issued in April, calling for the same number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.
“We expect an above-average hurricane season,” said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray’s team and lead author of the forecast.
Today’s forecast said there is a 50 percent chance of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula. The long-term average is 31 percent.
It said there is a 49 percent chance that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas. The long-term average is 30 percent.
Gray’s team also predicted above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.
The 2006 hurricane season was considered near normal, with 10 named storms and five hurricanes, two of them major. That confounded predictions by Gray and others, who had forecast a very active season.
Gray’s team said a late, unexpected El Nino last year contributed to the calmer season. El Nino – a warming in the Pacific Ocean – has far-reaching effects that include changing wind patterns in the eastern Atlantic, which can disrupt the formation of hurricanes.
Klotzbach and Gray said global weather conditions this year would create “a recipe for greatly enhanced Atlantic basin hurricane activity.” They said conditions would be similar to previous above-average seasons.
Unlike others, Gray says the increase in the number of hurricanes in recent years is caused by “natural forces,” not human-induced global warming.
