Washington – Al-Qaeda is using its growing strength in Pakistan and Iraq to plot attacks on U.S. soil, heightening the terror threat facing the United States over the next few years, intelligence agencies concluded in a report unveiled Tuesday.
At the same time, the intelligence analysts worry that international cooperation against terrorism will be hard to sustain as memories of Sept. 11, 2001, fade and nations’ views diverge on what the real threat is.
In the National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush and other top policymakers, analysts laid out a variety of dangers – including al-Qaeda, Lebanese Hezbollah and non-Muslim radical groups – that pose a “persistent and evolving threat” to the country over the next three years.
The findings focused most heavily on Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda network, which was judged to remain the most serious threat to the United States. The group’s affiliate in Iraq, which has not yet posed a direct threat to U.S. soil, could do just that, the report concluded. Al-Qaeda in Iraq threatened to attack the United States in a Web statement last September.
National Intelligence Council chairman Thomas Fingar warned that the group’s operatives in Iraq are getting portable, firsthand experience in covert communications, smuggling, improvised explosive devices, understanding U.S. military tactics and more.
The Iraqi affiliate also helps al-Qaeda more broadly as it tries to energize Sunni Muslim extremists around the globe, raise resources and recruit and indoctrinate operatives – “including for homeland attacks,” according to a declassified summary of the report’s main findings.
In addition, analysts stressed the importance of al-Qaeda’s increasingly comfortable hide-out in Pakistan that has resulted from a hands-off accord between Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and tribal leaders along the Afghan border. That 10-month-old deal, which has unraveled in recent days, gave al-Qaeda new opportunities to set up compounds for terror training, improve its international communications with associates and bolster its operations.
The assessment shows how the threat has changed.
Just two years ago, the intelligence agencies considered al-Qaeda’s various “franchises” decentralized offshoots, with bin Laden mostly providing ideological direction.
Fingar said his experts believe bin Laden and his top deputy are hiding in Pakistan.
National Intelligence Estimates are the most authoritative written judgments of the 16 spy agencies across the breadth of the U.S. government. These documents reflect the consensus long-term thinking of top intelligence analysts.
Tuesday’s publicly disclosed judgments are part of a more expansive, still-classified document, approved by the heads of all 16 intelligence agencies on June 21.
Analysts – who concluded the U.S. now faces a “heightened threat environment” – painted an increasingly familiar picture of al-Qaeda: a group focused on high-profile attacks against political, economic and infrastructure targets, while striving to cause mass casualties and dramatic destruction.
FBI Deputy Director John Pistole said the bureau does not know of any al-Qaeda cells in the United States, although his agents continue investigating such questions. The estimate said international counterterrorism efforts since 2001 have hampered al-Qaeda’s ability to attack the United States again, while also convincing terror groups that U.S. soil is a tougher target.
The White House sought to downplay the report’s worries about the future of international counterterrorism cooperation. Bush’s homeland-security adviser, Frances Fragos Townsend, said the administration isn’t concerned about being abandoned by allies.
Cooperation is “actually as strong as it’s ever been,” she said.
Meanwhile, Democrats said the report was proof that U.S. anti-terrorism efforts are being drained by the Iraq war.
House Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton, D-Mo., called on the U.S. to “responsibly redeploy” its troops from Iraq and turn security over to the Iraqis. “In hindsight, we should have concentrated our efforts on al-Qaeda in Afghanistan from the beginning,” he said.
INTERPRETATIONS OF THE REPORT
Responses to the National Intelligence Estimates on terrorist threats:
“The key judgments of the NIE on Terrorism released today paint a disturbing picture: a regenerated al-Qaeda, with a safe haven in Pakistani tribal areas, which is intensifying efforts to put operatives in the U.S.”
Rep. Jane Harman, D-Calif.
“We should be clear that despite a resurgent al-Qaeda threat and some of their capabilities, they are weaker today than they would have been if we had not taken strong action against them over the last 5 1/2 years. Furthermore, when we discuss al-Qaeda’s capabilities, we must put it in the context of a stronger, more capable U.S. government.”
Frances Fragos Townsend, White House homeland-security adviser
“We must responsibly redeploy our troops out of Iraq, handing responsibility for security over to the Iraqis and leaving only those forces required for limited missions. This will allow us to concentrate our efforts on Afghanistan and the al-Qaeda terrorists who attacked us on 9/11.”
Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo.
“The NIE confirms that worldwide counterterrorism efforts since 9/11, led by the United States, have constrained the ability of al-Qaeda to attack the U.S. again. Our efforts have helped stop terror plots worldwide before they happen, saved American lives, and have made our country safer than on 9/11.”
Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio
“The NIE confirms that al-Qaeda is the most serious threat to the United States, and that key elements of that threat have been regenerated or even enhanced. … The administration’s policies in Iraq have also allowed the emergence of an al-Qaeda affiliate that didn’t exist before the war.”
Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wis.
“What’s happening is, al-Qaeda basically is looking for ways to generate bragging rights that are going to be useful in recruiting or plotting or trying to leverage contacts. … It does not say that it has a stronger hand. What it says is that it is going to try to exploit – for political and also for recruiting purposes – anything it possibly can out of the ongoing conflict in Iraq.”
Tony Snow, White House press secretary
