Washington – South Carolina Republicans pushed up their 2008 presidential primary to Jan. 19, an earlier-than-planned date that provokes a dramatic shift in the nominating calendar and could mean the first votes are cast this December.
New Hampshire is sure to follow suit to protect its first-in-the- nation primary status, and Iowa, home to the leadoff caucuses, left little doubt it would do whatever is necessary to ensure it kicks off the nominating process as it has for three decades.
South Carolina’s move – and the expected aftershocks in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early-voting states – is the latest chapter in the extraordinary movement in the presidential- primary calendar for Republicans and Democrats as states such as California and New York jockey for more power in choosing the party nominees.
The ever-changing contest schedule has created an enormous level of discomfort for national parties trying to impose discipline on the states as well as presidential campaigns trying to figure out strategies when voting could begin in just four months.
Both national party committees insist they will penalize states that schedule nominating contests before Feb. 5 by withholding half of their delegates to the conventions next summer.
But that threat has largely been ignored. States assume that, as in past elections, whoever the party nominates will take over the national committees before the conventions and won’t enforce the penalty.
Florida recently flouted the warnings and moved its primary for Republicans and Democrats to Jan. 29. That prompted the South Carolina GOP, which has fiercely protected its first-in-the- South primary tradition, to maneuver for a date earlier than its originally scheduled Feb. 2. The South Carolina Democratic Party said it would stick with Jan. 29.
Given South Carolina’s change, New Hampshire will be forced by state law to move its primary to at least Jan. 12. Should that occur, Iowa then would have to, according to its law, shift its leadoff caucuses, perhaps to as early as mid-December.
As of Tuesday, Iowa was slated to hold its contest Jan. 14.
