Washington – A Senate electoral playing field that was already wide open for 2008 has become considerably more perilous for Republicans with the retirement of Sen. John Warner, R-Va., and the resignation of scandal-scarred Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho.
Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to take back control of the Senate, but they have 22 seats to defend, and campaign cash is conspicuously lacking. Warner’s retirement raised to two the number of open Republican seats, and both of them – in Virginia and Colorado – are prime targets for Democrats.
With former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey possibly waiting in the wings, Republicans are anxiously watching to see if Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., will retire. And two more Republican seats open for re-election – in Wyoming and possibly Idaho – would be occupied by unelected appointees, John Barrasso and Craig’s replacement.
“The state of the playing field looks very good, even in places where we didn’t expect it to look good, even in deeply red states,” said Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
“It’s always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench, but then it actually does get darker,” said a GOP pollster who insisted on anonymity in order to speak candidly.
To be sure, last week’s events will not necessarily change the terrain that much, if the Republicans get a little lucky.
Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, said the only way Idaho’s Republican seat would be in jeopardy is if Craig had rebuffed Republicans clamoring for his resignation and stood for re-election.
Virginia would be a very different story – if Schumer can coax former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner into the race. Most analysts, even Republicans, believe that Warner would enter the contest as a strong favorite. The GOP field could turn fratricidal if Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate whose political base is in the suburbs of Washington, goes up against former Gov. James Gilmore, a confrontational conservative.
Beyond Idaho and Virginia, the playing field looks barren for Republicans, GOP campaign aides conceded.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Wednesday rated the Colorado seat being vacated by Republican Sen. Wayne Allard as a tossup, but the state has been trending Democratic.
