Motorists looking to fill their tanks have dodged, so far, a triple threat of events conspiring to push gasoline prices higher.
A record high Thursday in crude-oil prices of more than $80 a barrel, declining gasoline supplies and refinery shutdowns from Hurricane Humberto all point toward rising gas costs.
Yet gasoline prices in Colorado and the nation have held steady in recent weeks after coming down from an all-time high in May.
Colorado’s average price for self-service regular has hovered in a range of $2.84 to $2.93 a gallon over the past month, according to AAA.
The national average has been about 10 cents cheaper.
However, some analysts said the retail gasoline market can’t withstand the pressure of high oil prices and supply uncertainties.
“If crude prices continue to rise, at some point they will likely have an impact on gasoline prices,” said Steve Douglas, general manager for supply and marketing at the Suncor refinery in Commerce City, which produces about one-third of Colorado’s gasoline.
One market observer speculated Thursday that oil could reach $100 a barrel this year.
“One hundred dollars is probably a high estimate, but I do believe we’ll be staying at high levels,” said Claudia Kemfert, head of the energy department at the DIW economic-research institute in Berlin. “The hurricane season isn’t over yet, and production interruptions are still possible.”
Other analysts say declining demand for fuel from motorists – typical after Labor Day – could provide a buffer against higher gasoline prices.
Crude oil for October delivery rose Thursday to a record of $80.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Hurricane Humberto, later downgraded to a tropical depression, caused power outages that shut down three oil refineries in Port Arthur, Texas.
The three refineries represent 4.8 percent of U.S. daily gasoline output. Refinery operators did not say when the plants would resume full production, although analysts said the outages were not expected to be lengthy.
The U.S. Department of Energy reported this week a bigger- than-expected drop in U.S. crude-oil stockpiles and declines in gasoline supplies and refinery activity. The report suggested oil supplies are tightening as demand remains strong.
Suncor will close one-third of its Commerce City plant next month for planned maintenance. Douglas said the refinery’s reduced output won’t have a noticeable effect on gasoline supplies or prices in Colorado because the shutdown is occurring during a period of low demand, and the company is making arrangements to bring extra gasoline in via pipelines.
Consumers, however, should prepare for higher prices, said Roy Turner of the Colorado/Wyoming Petroleum Marketers Association.
“Prices have been going down, but I think they may reverse,” he said, “especially with Suncor going off line, which could create some substantial problems.”
Bloomberg News contributed to this report.
Staff writer Steve Raabe can be reached at 303-954-1948 or sraabe@denverpost.com.
