FORT COLLINS, Colo.—Hurricane expert William Gray slightly downgraded his forecast for October and November on Tuesday, calling for four named storms, including two hurricanes, one of them major.
Gray’s team at Colorado State University had predicted five named storms in its earlier October-November predictions.
In their first forecast for the 2007 season, issued April 3, Gray and his team predicted a “very active” season, with 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, with five of them major hurricanes.
As of Oct. 1, a total of 13 named storms had developed, including four hurricanes. Two of the hurricanes were major.
Gray’s team at Colorado State updates and revises the forecast throughout the June-November hurricane season.
“August had somewhat above-average activity—about 130 percent of average—while September had about average activity—about 92 percent of average,” said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray’s team and lead author of the hurricane forecast.
“We expect October-November to be very active,” he said.
Eight named storms formed in September in the Atlantic basin, tying a record set in 2002 for the most in that month. But measured by the combined strength and duration of those storms, this September was actually the least active in the Atlantic since 1997, the National Hurricane Center said. That is because most of the September storms were weak and short lived.
In 2006, Gray’s team forecast nine hurricanes, five of them major. Instead, there were just five hurricanes, two of them major.
Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades, and his predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others in coastal areas.
