In the wake of the Broncos’ Detroit Debacle, we’re hearing all kinds of blathering: Write off the season! Start playing the younger guys more! Keep Jay Cutler off the field until he’s 100 percent healthy again, especially since he will be operating behind an offensive line that has been awful the past three weeks! And, of course, fire Mike Shanahan … probably not now, but the second the season ends!
What?
Let’s say for a moment that “rebuilding,” under the conventional definition of retrenching and even tearing down before beginning the climb back, is a viable option in the NFL of 2007.
(For many reasons, short of getting 17 first-round picks in a modern-day Herschel Walker trade, it isn’t a viable option, but …)
The only way Shanahan could afford to take a long-range view would be if he is certain that he both will want to, and will be allowed to, stay on the job after this season.
Forget his long-term contract. Never mind owner Pat Bowlen’s public stance that Shanahan essentially is a professor with tenure.
If the Broncos are deemed to be in a spiral at the end of this season, he will not be back.
That evaluation will involve more than the record. If the state of the football operation seems to have discredited the recent-years Shanahan pattern of shuffling the roster, staking much faith in expensive and in some cases baggage-laden free agents; of frequently changing defensive coordinators and philosophies; and of not finding or nurturing a post-Elway quarterback he can completely trust (or, more important, show trust in), then Shanahan will leave after this season.
I’m convinced of that. Whether Shanahan makes the decision himself, Bowlen does, or it’s a mutual it-was-a-nice-run handshake, he will be gone…soon landing in another job, with a fresh start.
Making as many changes to the Broncos’ depth chart as he can at this point – and there aren’t many realistic options, given the numbers and the injuries – would be a further concession that the decisions and, more important, the philosophy used in shaping the roster were disastrous.
There’s a fine line between admitting obvious mistakes and admitting, whether directly or inadvertently, that your way of doing business – of putting together and coaching a roster – isn’t working here any longer.
Shanahan has been masterful in working the system and coaching for much of his 12-year tenure here, and anyone who won’t acknowledge that – and some don’t, mostly advancing the hasn’t-won-without-Elway rationale – is ignorant.
In the past couple of years, though, the problem has been that one mistake, whether in overrating a free agent or mis-evaluating college players, leads to other mistakes made in the attempts to compensate.
The most ridiculous thing you hear about Shanahan – that his message has worn thin – is ridiculous because the roster has turned over roughly 75 percent in three years. That, in a sense, reflects the NFL cap-era reality that stability is a relative term, now meaning careful and selective retention, not a roster that looks similar from season to season.
Retooling is rebuilding’s smarter cousin.
“If you ever say that you’re rebuilding, I think you’re trying to give yourself an excuse for not having success right now,” Shanahan said Monday.
If Shanahan doesn’t deep-down believe that he is capable of coaching this roster – with all its problems – to the AFC West championship and into the playoffs, and then maybe catch some lightning, then he already has taken the first step toward handing in his resignation.
Ah, the AFC West. The Broncos, for all their problems, are one game out of first place and likely would be in a three-way tie for first with the Chiefs and Chargers if Denver wins at Kansas City on Sunday.
“It’s funny. In all the years past, we’d be 6-2 or whatever,” veteran tackle Matt Lepsis said. “I’d always look and there’d be some NFL division, and the team in the lead would be 4-3 or 4-4, and I’d say, ‘Why can’t we be in that division?”‘ Lepsis laughed and added, “We’re in that now, and it’s not that fun.”
Tight end Daniel Graham said the Broncos’ “destiny is in our own hands. We can turn the season around, and still have a positive season. It’s embarrassing that the division is like this, but it is what it is, and we’re still in the race to win this thing. If we take care of business, we still have a good shot at winning the division.”
How bad is the AFC West?
The Broncos still could win it.
I’ll let you decide if that’s a joke.
Terry Frei: 303-954-1895 or tfrei@denverpost.com
