Colorado will have to build a significant number of power plants or aggressively conserve energy over the next 18 years to meet growing needs for electricity, according to a new report from the Colorado Energy Forum, a Golden-based nonprofit.
By 2025, the state will need an additional 3,700 to 4,500 megawatts of power, even accounting for the addition of renewable power sources such as wind and solar, the report says.
“If the state’s utilities are not able to meet the expected growth in future demand, reliability will be decreased, with a huge financial cost to Colorado,” said the report, noting that higher electric rates could make the state’s economy less competitive.
The state’s Renewable Energy Standard law passed earlier this year requires Colorado public utilities to obtain 20 percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2020.
“We’re doing a lot with renewables, but we still have a long way to go to make sure the system stays up and reliable,” said Bruce Smith, executive director of Colorado Energy Forum.
In 2006, an Energy Forum report determined that 4,900 megawatts of power would be needed to meet demand by 2025.
While 4,900 megawatts are still needed, the addition of renewables helps offset some of it. The report projects renewables will account for between 330 and 1,122 megawatts of new power by 2025.
Xcel Energy, the largest power company in the state, said it plans to submit a resource plan to the state Public Utilities Commission next week, outlining how it will meet customer’s needs until 2015.
The company is generating 282 megawatts of wind power, and expects to increase output to 1,000 megawatts by the end of the year, said Xcel spokesman Tom Henley.
As for meeting the renewable energy requirement of 20 percent, Henley said “that’s a figure we’re comfortable with.”
But he could not say whether Xcel would generate renewable energy above that requirement.
“We would still have to investigate what level we could go to and how it would affect grid reliability,” he said.
Xcel is in the process of building a $1.3 billion coal-fired power plant near Pueblo. Construction on the 750-megawatt Comanche 3 generator began in December 2005 and is expected to be completed in fall 2009.
Smith said the new power needed by 2025 is above the extra power that Comanche 3 will bring online.
The report also said that hundreds of miles of new transmission lines will be needed to ensure electricity can be reliably delivered.
Projecting the state’s energy needs 18 years into the future raises concerns, as new breakthroughs in energy are not accounted for, said Leslie Glustrom, spokeswoman for Clean Energy Action, a Colorado citizens group.
“We’re in a time of tremendous change with respect to energy, and it’s dangerous to try to predict a long way into the future,” she said.
Glustrom said there are enough renewable alternatives to meet growing needs. “As we move into the new energy economy, we’ll be moving into a time of abundance, not scarcity.”
She said energy efficiency and conservation need to be added into the mix.
Colorado Energy Forum does not recommend a particular resource or energy mix. It said that all energy resources should “be on the table” to meet the additional demand.
However, some methods such as pulverized-coal-powered plants and nuclear plants have been rejected by many residents of Colorado and surrounding states.
“It’s not going to be easy, and undoubtedly it’s not going to be cheap,” forum director Smith said.
He said new technologies such as integrated gasification combined cycle power plants, which are a type of coal gasification, may be alternatives to existing methods to generate power from coal.
“These things are quite a way down the road,” Smith said. “Twenty years might be enough time if we get started now.”
Kimberly S. Johnson: 303-954-1088 or kjohnson@denverpost.com
