Louisiana State and Kansas don’t have a whole lot in common. They’ve never played each other in football. One has a rich football tradition, the other has a rich basketball tradition. One has great food, the other has a rich basketball tradition.
But one thing they do have in common separates them from the other 117 teams in Division I-A. They are the only schools that can determine their destiny to the BCS Championship.
Don’t let Sunday’s latest BCS rankings fool you. Yes, LSU (9-1) is first, Oregon (8-1) is second and Kansas (10-0) is third. However, if everyone wins out, LSU and Kansas should be ranked 1-2 and make the BCS title game in New Orleans on Jan. 7.
“I think Kansas jumps everybody if they’re 13-0,” said Jerry Palm, analyst for .
Kansas hasn’t played anyone? You’re right. None of its 10 wins have come against a team that received a single vote in Sunday’s Associated Press top 25. Its strength of schedule is ranked 85th. But that will change. In a hurry.
If the Jayhawks beat suddenly resurgent Iowa State (3-8) at home Saturday, they will play Missouri (9-1), fifth in the BCS, in Kansas City, Mo., and then probably No. 4 Oklahoma (9-1) in the Big 12 Championship on Dec. 1 in San Antonio. Kansas is ranked fourth in the coaches and Harris polls, which make up two-thirds of the BCS formula. Wins over the No. 5 and 4 teams in the BCS would certainly move Kansas ahead of Oregon in the polls and, thus, in the BCS standings.
Oregon’s problem is, unlike Kansas, it has no marquee games left. It visits Arizona (4-6) on Thursday, then UCLA (5-5) and hosts Oregon State (6-4) on Dec. 1.
Everyone, especially Oregon, received a huge break when Illinois knocked off top-ranked Ohio State on Saturday. Now the Ducks need someone to beat Kansas. If Kansas falls from the unbeatens, Palm said it’s unlikely that Oklahoma or Missouri would jump ahead of Oregon even with a Big 12 title.
“I think it gets closer,” Palm said. “Even if computers put them higher than Oregon, Oregon will be ahead in the polls.”
Considering nine unranked teams have upset schools in the top five this year, title-contending coaches would rather discuss the glory of sports agents than the BCS rankings. Kansas linebacker Joe Mortensen said after Saturday night’s win at Oklahoma State, “Coach (Mark Mangino) doesn’t let us talk about it. He gives us humble pie. Right now, it’s Iowa State, and we don’t want to get too ahead of ourselves.”
Oregon coach Mike Bellotti knows all too well that even if you take care of your own business it doesn’t guarantee anything.
“I don’t trust the BCS at all,” he said Sunday. “In 2001 or 2005, we should’ve been in the BCS championship one year and in a BCS bowl in the other.”
While LSU and Kansas would save the BCS from a controversy it luckily avoided the past two seasons, a Kansas loss would ignite a major debate about one-loss teams. Oregon lost at home to a four-loss California team. Oklahoma lost at 5-6 Colorado. Missouri lost only to Oklahoma and it would’ve avenged the loss in the Big 12 championship.
Bellotti said: “It’s a beauty contest. I’m not going to influence what other people think.”
No, but, as Palm said, “Style points are important for everybody.”
A Kansas loss would have Oregon, Oklahoma, Missouri and even No. 6 West Virginia (8-1) strutting their stuff in front of any TV or voter they can find.
“If Oregon wins the way it’s expected to win, no teams other than Kansas can jump them,” Palm said.
Not even Oklahoma? It will have beaten Missouri twice.
“We already know Oklahoma beat Missouri. If they beat them again, so what?” Palm said. “Look at Oklahoma’s nonconference schedule. Oregon is in a better league. (Oklahoma) played two of the five worst teams in the country: North Texas and Utah State. Miami (which had a 48-0 loss at home to Virginia on Saturday) ain’t helping them any, either.”
As for all the BCS bowls, it’s way too close to speculate, but we will anyway:
BCS championship. Oregon vs. LSU. We’re not buying Kansas getting through the gantlet of Missouri and Oklahoma on neutral fields.
Sugar. Hawaii vs. Georgia. By losing its SEC anchor in LSU, the Sugar gets first pick of at-large teams, which could be Georgia. It also gets the last pick, which could be Hawaii if it’s the lone unbeaten and improves its No. 16 BCS ranking.
Rose. Ohio State vs. Southern California. By losing its Pac-10 anchor in Oregon, the Rose gets two at-large picks and will stick to tradition: Big Ten vs. Pac-10.
Orange. Texas vs. Virginia Tech. Sorry, Missouri and Kansas. If they don’t win the Big 12, a two-loss Texas team is the most attractive at-large on the board. Virginia Tech is the Orange Bowl’s Atlantic Coast Conference anchor.
Fiesta. West Virginia vs. Oklahoma. This is real speculative. The Orange Bowl chooses its at-large team before the Fiesta, but the Fiesta, which takes the Big 12 champion, doesn’t want an Oklahoma-Texas rematch.
