FORT COLLINS, Colo.—Weather researcher William Gray said Tuesday the 2007 hurricane season was less active than his team predicted, with six hurricanes developing in the Atlantic instead of the nine initially forecast.
Cooler water and the presence of wind shears in the central tropical Atlantic made this an average season instead of the above-average year the team expected, said Phil Klotzbach, a member of Gray’s team at Colorado State University.
Cooler temperatures inhibit hurricane formation, and wind shears can tear developing hurricanes apart.
Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for more than two decades, and his predictions for the June-November season are watched closely by emergency responders and others in coastal areas.
It’s the second straight year the team predicted more hurricanes than actually occurred. Last year, Gray’s initial forecast in April predicted 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them intense. The season produced just nine named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them major.
This year, Gray’s April and June forecasts both predicted 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major. In August, the team lowered that forecast to 15 named storms, including eight hurricanes, four of them major.
Instead, the year produced 14 named storms, including six hurricanes, two of them major. That’s considered average compared with the 1950-2000 period, Klotzbach said.
“The reasons for this year’s average season are challenging to explain,” Klotzbach said in a written statement.
“It is impossible to understand how all these processes interact with each other to 100 percent certainty. Continued research should help us better understand these complicated atmospheric-oceanic interactions.”
Klotzbach says that in seven of the past nine years, the team correctly predicted whether the season would be above or below average.
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On the Net:
Gray’s teams 2007 verification report:
