DES MOINES, Iowa — For the top three Democratic president hopefuls, today’s much-anticipated Iowa caucuses are really all about New Hampshire.
The first-in-the-nation caucuses are expected to set the stage for next week’s political vaudeville show in the Granite State, which is often a predictor of the Democratic nominee and where the three-way race has tightened.
“The only reason Iowa matters is the effect it has in New Hampshire. If you’re losing New Hampshire, you have to win Iowa to get the momentum to win New Hampshire,” said Democratic consultant Mary Anne Marsh.
For instance, Sen. John Kerry was trailing former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in New Hampshire four years ago. But his win in Iowa helped push him over the top in New Hampshire.
Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards have been locked in a virtual dead heat, with polls repeatedly projecting inconsistent results. Turnout, however, is expected to play a big role, and all three candidates are expected to have small armies mobilizing caucus attendees.
“Turnout could really make things dramatic,” said David Redlawsk, a political-science professor at the University of Iowa. “I would not be surprised if turnout goes higher than last time, but I would be surprised to see a 20 percent bump.”
An average turnout, such as the 125,000 caucusgoers who voted four years ago, is likely to benefit Edwards, who has been been courting die-hard caucus enthusiasts who show up year after year.
A big turnout is expected to help Obama, who is wooing young people, independents and those who are new to the caucus process. Somewhere in the middle may help Clinton, who has focused on women and older people.
Anything is possible since the weather for caucus day is expected to be sunny with a high of 33 degrees, considered balmy here.
Another possible impact on the race are Democrats’ so-called second choices. A candidate must receive 15 percent of the vote at a caucus location in order to qualify for delegates. After the first round of voting, supporters of those candidates deemed not viable can choose their second choice.
Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich has asked his supporters to back Obama as their second choice. Kucinich did the same thing four years ago for Edwards. The move was credited with helping push Edwards into second place.
While the three-way race is too close to call, there are some possible scenarios. For instance, most political observers say Edwards must win in order to stay competitive in the race.
The 2004 presidential hopeful, who was John Kerry’s vice-presidential pick, has barely left Iowa since he came in second in the caucuses then. He’s hoping it pays off, especially with rural voters.
A win would infuse his campaign with cash and propel him into New Hampshire, where he has enough staff and resources to be competitive, said Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire. A strong showing in the Granite State would likely keep Edwards alive for the California and Feb. 5th primary and caucus states.
However, two days ago, The Des Moines Register’s final poll showed Obama seven points ahead of Clinton — 32 percent to 25 percent — with Edwards at 24 percent.
Obama ran with it, while his opponents knocked the poll’s methodology
If Clinton is victorious, her campaign would regain the “inevitability” label it had a few weeks ago and likely roll through the rest of the primaries. But if Obama pulls out a win, the race in New Hampshire is expected to narrow to those two.
“It will be the fight to end all fights. Someone better call 911,” Marsh said.
Karen Crummy: 303-954-1594 or kcrummy@denverpost.com
