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Though they have been politically fragmented for much of this decade, Latinos could seize the day at Saturday’s Nevada caucuses and make their voice an important predictor in the presidential race in the Intermountain West.

The combination of the fast-growing Latino population and the state’s new early position on the primary schedule means the bloc has become coveted, and Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama and former Sen. John Edwards have been in and out of the state since the New Hampshire primary.

“The buzz here is that a lot of Hispanics are going to probably caucus for Hillary Clinton and not Barack Obama,” said University of Las Vegas political science professor David Damore. “That said, both sides have done a lot of outreach in the Hispanic community. There’s definitely a lot of attention to it.”

At the party level, the Democrats have been the clear winner in recruiting Latinos. Though President Bush made gains in the community in 2004, those have disappeared, says a recent study by the Pew Hispanic Center. Further, a quirk in the calendar means that GOP rivals are facing one another simultaneously in both South Carolina — which has more population — and Nevada. Democrats have only Nevada to contend with Saturday.

The result is that the GOP contestants have made only casual passes through Nevada — if they have visited at all — while Democratic candidates have made a real effort here.

The state Democratic Party even started its own city-league soccer team — Los Democratas, which it is using to register voters — and it has been offering scores of caucus training sessions.

Yet it is by no means clear which of the Democratic presidential front-runners might prevail at Saturday’s caucuses. Though the Latino population in Nevada is mostly built of Mexican immigrants, similar to Colorado’s burgeoning community, its ranks aren’t unified, said Lonna Rae Atkeson, a political science professor from the University of New Mexico.

“We might see them split within the party,” Atkeson said.

One in four residents in Nevada is Latino. Only half of them are eligible to vote because the others are either too young or not yet citizens. According to the Pew center, of those that are registered, nearly 60 percent now call themselves Democrats. Only 23 percent support the Republican Party.

Maria Chavez, a 28-year-old chiropractic assistant who hasn’t paid attention to the process until this season, says Saturday she and her friends are headed for their caucus sites.

With hands that ended in sculpted and sparkling nails, Chavez carried a Clinton campaign sign from a rally at Legacy High School in North Las Vegas Thursday. It featured former President Bill Clinton, the couple’s daughter, Chelsea, and former NBA star Magic Johnson. “It’s nice,” Chavez said about her new interest in politics. “The Democrats are more for the middle-class people.”

Some of Chavez’s friends will caucus for Obama, she said. Others at the Clinton rally were unsure, or too young, to vote.

Those who support Clinton often speak of the legacy of the Bill Clinton administration, which named several Latinos to high and mid-level positions, such as former Denver Mayor Federico Peña’s appointment as secretary of transportation and later as secretary of energy. (Peña, however, is supporting Obama.)

Some experts say that tension between working-class Latinos and blacks could make Latinos unwilling to support Obama. A New America Media poll on race relations found that almost half of Latinos said that blacks tended toward criminal activity and that they feared them. The poll also found that a narrow majority of blacks felt Latinos hurt black job prospects and political power.

Another wild card is the endorsement of the 60,000-strong culinary workers union in Vegas, which is about 40 percent Latino. The nod from union officials went to Obama, but Damore and others wonder if some of the workers might break ranks.

Finally, though the state party prevailed in its goal of offering at-large caucus sites at casinos for their workers, observers say that historically, the single time slot of a caucus, versus the 12-hour window to cast a ballot that primaries offer — keeps many hard-working Latino voters away.

“It’s difficult for (campaign organizers) to get any enthusiasm in the Hispanic community,” Damore said.

Staff researcher Barbara Hudson contributed to this report.
Chuck Plunkett: 303-954-1333 or cplunkett@denverpost.com