WASHINGTON — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton maintains a solid lead in her party’s presidential race nationwide despite a surge in support since late last year for Sen. Barack Obama, a Los Angeles Times/ Bloomberg Poll has found.
The Republican presidential contest finds most voters divided among three candidates — Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has sagged from first place to fourth, according to the survey.
Clinton was preferred by 42 percent of the likely Democratic voters polled, Obama by 33 percent — a significant increase for Obama since a similar poll in early December, when he was the choice of 21 percent. Support for Clinton remained virtually unchanged over that period.
The overall preference figures mask a pronounced racial divide among Democratic voters: About two-thirds of black respondents said they would vote for Obama, while only about one-fourth of white respondents said he was their choice.
The poll also found that an increasing number of Democratic voters — about two-thirds — say they are certain who they will vote for, making major swings in preference less likely as the primary season heads into the states with the most delegates.
“Now that Democrats have winnowed down their race to two leading candidates, (voters) are moving toward the candidates they will probably vote for,” said Susan Pinkus, the poll’s director. “Obama has gained some support, but Clinton has not lost any. The question now is: Where do the remaining voters go?”
Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina drew the support of 11 percent of Democrats. When asked for whom they would vote if their first choice dropped out, slightly more Edwards voters leaned toward Clinton than Obama, the poll found.
In the GOP contest, the survey found that 22 percent of likely Republican voters preferred McCain, 18 percent backed Huckabee and 17 percent chose Romney.
Because of the poll’s margin of error, the differences are not statistically meaningful.
Giuliani was supported by 12 percent of likely GOP voters, down dramatically from 32 percent in an October poll and 23 percent in the December survey. He decided not to compete actively in the first few contests and has staked his candidacy on a strong showing in Florida’s primary on Tuesday.
Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who ended his candidacy Tuesday, drew 10 percent, while Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, whose fundraising from a committed core of supporters has outpaced that of better- known candidates, drew 6 percent.
The Republican electorate remains notably volatile. Barely more than half of Republicans were certain that they would stick with their first choice; 41 percent, including about half of Romney’s supporters, said they might change their minds.
“The Republican race is still wide open,” Pinkus said. “Republican voters are still trying to figure out who their candidate is.”
In a reflection of the GOP’s uncertain state, Republican voters who described themselves as conservatives were far from united around a candidate. Instead, about one-fifth chose McCain, one-fifth chose Romney and the rest were divided among others.
In a sign of potential trouble for Huckabee, only 25 percent of GOP voters who described themselves as evangelical Christians named him as their first choice, despite his emphasis on traditional social values. Among evangelicals, McCain was the second-most popular at 19 percent, despite his one-time friction with leaders of the religious right.
In hypothetical general election matchups, Clinton and Obama lead Romney, Huckabee or Giuliani. McCain is the one Republican within striking distance of defeating either Democrat in the general election.
The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points for the Democratic sample and plus or minus 5 points for the GOP group.
NATIONWIDE RESULTS OF LOS ANGELES TIMES/BLOOMBERG POLL
Democrats
Hillary Clinton
42%
Barack Obama
33%
John Edwards
11%
Republicans
John McCain
22%
Mike Huckabee
18%
Mitt Romney
17%
Rudy Giuliani
12%
