ORLANDO, Fla. — Republican presidential candidates fanned out across Florida on Monday in a last-ditch effort to capture the winner-take-all primary and benefit from the boost of momentum likely to come from victory.
Democrats, on the other hand, were nowhere to be seen. The candidates took a pledge not to campaign in Florida after the national party stripped its delegates when the primary was moved up.
For both parties, the large and diverse Sunshine State is a gauge for how well the candidates play to a broad electorate. Already, more than 750,000 votes have been cast early, and officials are predicting a record turnout today.
“Anything could happen,” said Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida. “It’s going to come down to who voters think is electable.”
The Republican race has heated up considerably in recent days, as the two front-runners — John McCain and Mitt Romney — have gone on the attack, labeling each other flip-floppers and questioning each other’s conservative credentials. At the same time, they are both emphasizing their strengths — national security for McCain, an Arizona senator and Vietnam veteran, and the economy for Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and venture capitalist.
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who largely ignored early states hoping that a win here would catapult him into Super Tuesday, is trailing in third. However, Giuliani was doing much better in the polls a few weeks ago and may have captured a good percentage of early and absentee votes. He also is striving for high turnout on the southeastern coast, where there are a large number of New York and New Jersey transplants.
Mike Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and preacher, is hoping the state’s evangelicals and Baptists can push him into a good position.
McCain is expected to do well with the large number of veterans and active military in the state, as well as blue-collar workers and older Cuban-Americans. He also has nabbed important endorsements from U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez and Gov. Charlie Crist, who are both popular and considered party moderates.
Romney has a better organized ground game, and his campaign has worked on early and absentee voters for weeks. He is garnering support from younger voters as well as those around southwest Florida, such as Sarasota, and he’s lasered in on economic conservatives in areas such as Jacksonville.
The contest may be decided, however, in the swing area of the state known as the Interstate 4 corridor.
Stretching from St. Petersburg on the southwest to Daytona Beach in the northeast, the I-4 corridor in Florida includes the cities of Tampa, Lakeland and Orlando and its suburbs, including diverse inner-city populations, new subdivisions and thousands of retirees. Counties along I-4 are loaded with independents and routinely split their tickets in general elections.
While Democrats can count on winning southeast Florida in a general election, and Republicans can count on the southwest and far west Panhandle of the state, the ability of presidential candidates to win over middle America may be measured by how well they perform along this corridor.
Although the delegates won’t count, the winner of the Democratic primary is expected get some mileage from that victory as well.
“It’s a win and a symbolic boost,” said Dan Smith, a political science professor at the University of Florida.
Hillary Rodham Clinton, a New York senator, has wooed Florida voters from afar and leads in the polls. She said last week that she wants the state’s delegates to count, regardless of the national party’s decision, and on Sunday, she appeared in the state for a fundraiser, which doesn’t violate the no-campaigning pledge. She also announced that she would be in Florida when the polls close tonight.
Barack Obama, an Illinois senator, has said he will abide the national party’s decision. However, some political analysts say that his massive win over Clinton in South Carolina may help his showing in Florida.
Karen Crummy: 303-954-1594 or kcrummy@denverpost.com
