President Pervez Musharraf and the ruling political party allied to him — the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) — suffered a resounding defeat in parliamentary elections held in Pakistan on Monday. The leader of the party and several Cabinet members lost their seats. Religious Islamic parties in the northwest frontier area were also big losers.
The winners were the late Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League (N), or PML-N, of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. But neither party will have a majority in the 272-member Parliament, and thus a coalition government will replace the eight-year military rule in Pakistan and elect a prime minister.
The elections were generally orderly, primarily because the army tried to repair its image by not stuffing the ballot boxes in favor of the ruling party, as it was known to do in the past. But the turnout was relatively low — fewer than 40 percent of the electorate voted — because of the fear of violence and suicide bombers, but also because of apathy.
And there are unresolved questions:
What is Musharraf’s future? Do the elections signify a transition to democratic rule, a functional government, and a stable Pakistan (which still has an arsenal of nuclear weapons)?
How will the elections impact the war on terror, which remains the major concern of the U.S.? Will the chief justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Chowdhary, and the majority of senior judges dismissed by Musharraf, many of whom are still under house arrest, be reinstated?
And what will be the role of the military, which has been the only credible and enduring institution in Pakistan?
Musharraf’s new five-year term as president was validated by the Supreme Court after he had replaced the chief justice and several judges who were hearing a challenge to his election in the fall. Nawaz Sharif has raised the reinstatement of the judges and the undoing of the “unconstitutional amendments” made by Musharraf as his most important election pledge. If he can get support from his coalition partners for fulfilling his promise, then even Musharraf’s impeachment will not be out of the question. He may even step down.
But the trump card is the PPP, which had indicated its willingness to work with Musharraf and not to engage in confrontational politics. In the U.S., there has also been some soul-searching. The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Joseph Biden, D-Del., was in Pakistan on Sunday and said, “I don’t buy into the argument that Musharraf is the only one. We have to have more than just a Musharraf policy.”
In Pakistan, the general consensus is that the United States’ unconditional support of Musharraf, an unpopular dictator, has hampered its war against terrorism. The armed forces, headed by Musharraf’s successor, General Ashfaq Kiyani, have seemingly decided not to interfere in politics, giving hope that with U.S. help, they may have a better chance in this effort.
A good friend and leading Pakistani lawyer in Lahore, Parvez Hassan, sent a message as the election results were being announced: “Democracy has truly shown its magic. . . . The battle is still not won, but victory is in sight.”
Ved Nanda (vnanda@law.du.edu) is John Evans Distinguished Professor, University of Denver, Thompson G. Marsh Professor and director of the International Legal Studies Program, DU Sturm College of Law.
