For all the talk of Colorado as a purple state — one in the midst of profound political transition from Republican red to Democratic blue — the truth is that movement is largely colored by a handful of “swing” counties.
In fact, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Garfield, Larimer and Jefferson counties will largely determine the electoral fate of Colorado in November.
All have shown a willingness by voters to be guided less by party ideology and more by candidates and issues. Republican voters outnumber Democrats in all five, even though each voted for Democrats Ken Salazar and Bill Ritter in 2004 and 2006, respectively.
Today, The Denver Post begins an occasional series focusing on three of these political hot spots: Garfield, Jefferson and Larimer counties.
Between now and the election Nov. 4, political reporters will return regularly, examining various races and issues to present our readers with a picture of Colorado’s political transition through the eyes of voters in these swing counties.
They share some characteristics: Shifting demographics, more unaffiliated voters, and residents who are guided less by the compass of ideology and more by the concerns of the kitchen table — education, transportation, and economic and physical security.
Major differences remain
In other ways, the swing counties differ substantially from one another.
Garfield is ground zero of the West’s energy boom. Broomfield is a center of the state’s idea economy, a major anchor of telecom and technology industries. Arapahoe is a maturing suburb with a slightly faded sheen, its more affluent — and more solidly Republican — residents having decamped south to the exurbs in Douglas and Elbert counties.
“You can trace this stuff to the demographics; you can trace it to shifting populations. Frankly, you can even trace it to changing consumption patterns. The housing stock in Arapahoe is not what the younger Republican demographic is looking for,” said Steve Ward, a Republican now knocking on doors in Jefferson and Arapahoe counties as a candidate for the 6th Congressional District.
“It’s hard to find a three-car garage in Littleton. It’s hard to find a three-car garage in southern Jefferson County. You find a lot more of them in Douglas and Elbert counties,” Ward said.
Taken together, these are the state’s political crucibles, and anyone trying to understand their importance in leading Colorado’s political change need only look at the watershed elections of 2004, experts say.
Running for his second term, President Bush handily won this state four years ago, continuing a Republican trend in Colorado that goes back to Bill Clinton’s first term. But the five swing counties split their tickets.
They also voted for Salazar for U.S. Senate, handing him the formerly Republican seat and beginning a remarkable Democratic run in the state. Over the past four years, the party gained control over the state legislature, won a formerly Republican congressional seat as well as a U.S. Senate seat, and took back the governor’s mansion.
As Republicans try to turn the political tide in Colorado this year, the swing counties will be among the hardest-fought battlegrounds.
