They talk about the third season around here as if it’s a second coming.
It’s convenient, of course, to hype the significance of a quarterback’s third season because, as it so happens, the Broncos’ Jay Cutler is in his third season.
But let the record show that long before Mike Shanahan espoused the virtues a third season has for a quarterback’s development, I had already invested in the concept.
In 2006, I drafted Eli Manning for my fantasy roster. Why? Because Manning was about to begin his third season. He got playing time and took his lumps as a rookie. He made considerable progress in his sophomore season. And I was sure Manning would take off in his third season.
How did he fare? He threw for 518 fewer yards than in his second season, and for the same number of touchdowns.
As a fantasy player, Manning got worse.
Undeterred, I jumped on San Francisco’s Alex Smith in 2007. Yes, it was his third season. He had finished his second season strong. He looked terrific in the 2007 preseason opener against the Broncos.
I became so smitten with Smith that I even — get this — started him ahead of Tom Brady in the season’s first week.
All you have to know about Smith’s third season is he’s starting his fourth season on the bench, behind the unknown but rocket-armed J.T. O’Sullivan.
The pursuit of the sleeper fantasy quarterback, however, does not stop with a two-year slump. Many fantasy experts are regarding Cutler as this year’s sleeper QB. By sleeper, they mean not the 12th- best quarterback, as he was last year in both fantasy scoring and actual league statistics (contrary to what fantasy critics say, they are often the same), but a top-eight passer, maybe even a top-five.
There is even a twist with Cutler and his third season. Besides two years of polish, Cutler has 35 pounds of extra strength after he was treated for Type 1 diabetes that went undetected last year.
So if you have already drafted Cutler for your fantasy team, congratulations. Keep him. Consider playing him even while Brandon Marshall is suspended for the first game. And start Cutler every week after Marshall returns.
For those who didn’t draft Cutler, don’t fret. When it comes to quarterbacks, that third season is not always what it’s cracked it up to be.
My sleeper quarterback? Add O’Sullivan to the bottom of your roster and wait. Besides having Mike Martz for an offensive coordinator, the kid has a terrific arm. I love quarterbacks with strong arms. If Cutler is terrific this year, it says here it will be more because of his arm strength than his third season.
Top QBs
Top fantasy quarterbacks, according to NFL.com’s fantasy site:
1. Tom Brady, New England
2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
3. Tony Romo, Dallas
4. Drew Brees, New Orleans
5. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati
6. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
7. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
8. Derek Anderson, Cleveland
9. Brett Favre, N.Y. Jets
10. D. McNabb, Philadelphia
11. Jay Cutler, Denver
12. David Garrard, Jacksonville
13. Marc Bulger, St. Louis
14. Eli Manning, N.Y. Giants
15. Philip Rivers, San Diego
16. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
17. Vince Young, Tennessee
18. Jake Delhomme, Carolina
19. Matt Schaub, Houston
20. Jon Kitna, Detroit
