WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence officials said Tuesday that North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il may have suffered a serious health setback, amid reports that the 66-year-old dictator had failed to appear at an important celebration of his country’s anniversary.
An intelligence official said it appeared that Kim “has suffered a health setback, potentially a stroke.” The official said U.S. officials are watching the development closely because of the far-reaching effects it could have on North Korean affairs.
Kim did not attend a military parade Tuesday marking the 60th anniversary of the country’s founding, an event over which he would normally have been expected to preside.
Today, the Yonhap news agency cited an unidentified South Korean government official as saying Kim appeared to have suffered a collapse, a term in Korean normally used to indicate a grave illness such as a stroke. However, the official said Kim is still alive.
Kim has no heir apparent, and the floundering regime could collapse with his passing. He is visibly overweight, walks with a slight limp and is reported by South Korean intelligence to suffer from diabetes and a heart condition.
Kim’s prolonged illness or death could have an important effect on the current international effort to rid North Korea of its nuclear weapons. North Korea’s military is strongly opposed to the country surrendering such arms, and analysts believe its influence would grow if Kim were sidelined or dead.
The North Korean leader’s last public appearance was Aug. 14. It is not unusual for the reclusive leader to disappear for months at a time, but his absence at Tuesday’s parade was noteworthy.
Claiming a heavenly mandate to rule, Kim took over North Korea in 1994 following the death of his father, North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-Sung, at the age of 82.
However, Kim Jong-Il’s sons have spent much of their lives in Switzerland and elsewhere outside of their home country. The older, Kim Jong-Nam, 37, fell into disfavor after he was arrested in 2001 on suspicion of sneaking into Japan to visit Disneyland on a fake passport. Two other sons are in their 20s.
“When he does die, it will be havoc because there is no mechanism in place for power transfer,” said Andrei Lankov, a respected Pyongyang watcher and a professor at South Korea’s Kookmin University. “There will be a lot of contenders for supremacy. Unless we have somebody who will be charismatic, ruthless and popular, we will probably see open clashes in Pyongyang, maybe shooting.”
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