A breakdown of the American League Championship Series between the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays.
Key player
Red Sox RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka
Manager Terry Francona has a lot of confidence in his righthander,
entrusting him to pitch tonight’s opener in what
promises to be a rowdy Tropicana Field. Francona chose Matsuzaka
because he wanted to give his big three- Josh Beckett,
Jon Lester and Matzusaka – an equal amount of rest. Yet
there are plenty of reasons why Matsuzaka could wilt in the
spotlight. In each of his two September starts at “The Trop,”
Matsuzaka lasted just five innings (averaging 20.3 pitches per
inning), albeit posting a 1.80 ERA. The Rays’ goal will be to inflate
Matsuzaka’s pitch count early. The Angels had
him on the ropes in the divisional series but
couldn’t break the game open. Matsuzaka (18-3)
led the AL in walks, and the velocity on his
fastball has dipped, all of which makes him
susceptible to the Rays’ running game.
Starting pitching
The best pitcher in this series
isn’t Boston’s Josh Beckett; it’s teammate
Jon Lester, who was brilliant
in the ALDS against the Angels (no
earned runs in 14 innings). The
left-hander is slated to pitch Game
3 against struggling Rays righthander
Matt Garza (winless in his
last six starts). Lester also lines up
for a potential Game 7. That spells
trouble for the Rays, who scored
just two runs and struck out 19
times against Lester in 20 innings
this season. Beckett has been one of
the great all-time postseason pitchers
but struggled in the ALDS upon
his return from injury. Daisuke Matsuzaka
also was so-so in the ALDS.
James Shields gets the call for
Tampa Bay in Game 1. He is 2-4
with a 5.23 ERA vs. the Red Sox in
eight career starts. Of the Rays’
starters, only Andy Sonnanstine (13
shutout innings) had eye-popping
stats against Boston this season.
Edge: Red Sox
Bullpen
Relievers are the reason the Rays
were 8-0 against the Red Sox this
season in games decided by two or
fewer runs. Even with closer Troy
Percival out, the Rays are tough in
the late innings. Setup men Grant
Balfour and J.P. Howell are outstanding,
and Dan Wheeler can handle
the closer’s role, although the
Red Sox have an edge with
Jonathan Papelbon, who has yet to
give up a run in his postseason career
(12 games, 19M innings). Papelbon
is confident, cool and aggressive.
Boston’s setup men, featuring
Justin Masterson, Manny Delcarmen
and Hideki Okajima, have been
solid but not as good as the Rays’.
Edge: Rays
At the plate
These are not the same Red Sox
who bludgeoned the Rockies in last
year’s World Series. First of all,
Manny Ramirez is now wearing
Dodger blue. And third baseman
Mike Lowell is out with a hip injury.
And slugger David Ortiz is
banged up. Ramirez’s replacement,
Jason Bay, blossomed in prime
time, batting a team-high .412 in his
first-ever postseason action with
two home runs and five RBIs. And
the Red Sox beat the Angels in four
games in the ALDS even though
their two best hitters -Dustin
Pedroia and Ortiz- combined to
go just 5-for-34 (.147) with only two
RBIs. Pedroia figures to heat up,
but Ortiz is battling a sore wrist.
Outside of rookie sensation Evan
Longoria and veteran Carlos Peña,
the Rays didn’t show a lot of power
in the regular season, but B.J. Upton’s
bat is heating up at the right
time. He pounded three home runs
in the final two games against the
White Sox in the ALDS. The Rays
count on situational hitting and run
the bases well. Six players had
on-base percentages of .346 or higher
during the regular season, while
three players had 20 or more stolen
bases.
Edge: Red Sox
In the field
With Lowell out, the Rays have a
decided advantage. Peña provides a
steady target at first, Akinori Iwamura
made an amazingly smooth
transition from third to second, and
the arrival of shortstop Jason Bartlett
was the key. Add on the Gold
Glove-worthy play of Longoria at
third and the return of Carl Crawford
in left, and the Rays have the
best defense in the AL.
Boston’s Kevin Youkilis shifts
over from first to replace Lowell at
third base. Mark Kotsay moves into
first base, where he’s played only a
handful of games in his career.
He’ll do OK, but the Red Sox are
not as athletic, or clutch, in the
field.
Edge: Rays
Managers
Bespectacled Joe Maddon will
win AL manager of the year, and deservedly
so. With a stern hand but
a sense of fun, he pushed all the
right buttons, bringing the Rays
along faster than almost anyone
thought possible. He also put a
backbone in his young team to
make sure it isn’t intimidated.
Boston’s Terry Francona runs a
tight ship and he’s a master in big
games, as his teams seem to make
the big play time and again. In five
seasons in Boston, he’s already won
two World Series.
Edge: Red Sox
Patrick Saunders’ prediction: Rays in six
