AMARAH, Iraq — Followers of anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr hope to win back their position as a major force in this month’s regional elections after a string of military and political setbacks last year.
Even modest success in the Jan. 31 vote for ruling provincial councils could position the Sadrists as coalition partners in key southern provinces, where a large number of candidates makes it unlikely any single party can win on its own.
Anything short of that could relegate the once-formidable al-Sadr to political irrelevance — something unthinkable a year ago, when his fearsome Mahdi Army militia wielded vast power in Shiite areas of Iraq.
“This month’s elections will decide who remains in the political arena and who will go into oblivion,” said senior Sadrist lawmaker Hassan al-Rubaie. “If we fail to do well, our movement could fragment, and some of its key figures could be lured away by rival blocs trying to destroy us.”
Top Sadrist officials in key southern cities — Basra, Amarah and Najaf — spoke confidently about their election prospects during interviews with The Associated Press.
But they fear that authorities may step up arrests of al-Sadr’s supporters and campaign workers in response to his call for attacks on U.S. forces in retaliation for Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
The Sadrists also face a strong threat from the country’s two largest Shiite parties — the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and the Dawa party of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
The Mahdi Army, which battled the Americans for years, has been riven with divisions. The militiamen’s former image as the defender of the Shiites has been tarnished among many urban Shiites who consider them gangsters.
“We are proud of our opposition to the (U.S.) occupation,” said Ayed al-Mayahi, al-Sadr’s representative in Basra. “Everything that has happened to us was the price we paid for that stand.”
