BAGHDAD — Iraqis vote Saturday in the first nationwide election in three years, choosing provincial leaders in what amounts to a test of Iraq’s stability as the U.S. plans to remove its troops.
In contrast to Iraq’s three previous ballots since the U.S.-led invasion, which were held in the shadow of fierce fighting, this one is strikingly open.
In Baghdad and elsewhere, streets are festooned with election banners, and candidates — many of them first-timers — have taken advantage of better security to hold public meetings where voters pose questions on such issues as housing shortages and rising prices.
Although the races are local, the stakes are enormous — both for Iraq and the United States.
A credible election without significant violence would show that the security improvements of the past 18 months are taking hold.
The outcome also will show which parties stand the best chance of success in parliamentary elections expected by the end of the year.
However, a deeply flawed election, marred by violence and allegations of widespread fraud, would cast doubt over Iraq’s future and could influence President Barack Obama’s decision on how fast to remove the 142,000 American service members.
Obama pledged during the presidential campaign to end America’s role in the unpopular war and has ordered his national security team to prepare plans for a responsible withdrawal. U.S. officials warn that a hasty pullout could threaten Iraq’s fragile security.
Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Pentagon is closely watching the elections because their outcome “will, I think, be a big indicator for 2009, which is a big year.”
U.S. and Iraqi officials have warned that extremists might try to disrupt the vote and are planning heightened security, including banning vehicles on election day and closing airports and land borders. But officials expect a strong turnout — possibly more than 70 percent of the 15 million eligible voters. Election officials expect final results within a few days.
More than 14,400 candidates, about 3,900 of them women, are competing for 444 seats on ruling councils in 14 of the country’s 18 provinces. So, it could take weeks of dealmaking to determine which parties have gained control of key areas such as Baghdad; the oil-rich, Shiite-dominated south; and former insurgent strongholds of western Anbar province.
