BOULDER — It was late Wednesday night and Oklahoma State had just whipped Colorado in a game that hurt the Cowboys’ RPI, helped their record and hurt their strength of schedule.
Oklahoma State coach Travis Ford had all kinds of comments about the Cowboys’ defense, their 3-point shooting and their balance.
When it came time to explain what the NCAA Tournament selection committee looks for, the affable Ford got tongue-tied, like a guy trying to explain astrophysics. “Man, if I could answer that . . .” he said.
Welcome to life on the NCAA Tournament bubble. It’s what a dozen teams are facing as the regular season enters its final two weeks. For cynics who say college basketball’s regular season isn’t much more important than the NHL’s, they aren’t one of the bubble teams staring at each remaining game as the biggest of their lives.
One slip against a Colorado and they’re done. One upset of a team already looking at a high NCAA Tournament seed and there’s renewed hope. The question all coaches have is whether what their teams are doing right fits into the selection committee’s criteria. What the 10-person committee uses in selecting the 65- team field isn’t written on a scroll. However, it’s fairly common knowledge that huge factors are the RPI, the record in the last 12 games, big wins and bad losses.
Conference placement means nothing. Conference affiliation means nothing. Overall record means little. It leaves a lot of coaches entering March a lot more confused about their teams than they were entering November.
Take Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 19-9 overall and 8-6 in the Big 12. Their RPI is 34. Their strength of schedule is 16. Until they beat Texas 68-59 on Saturday, their lone big win was over Siena on Nov. 30. If you can name Siena’s conference, slowly step away from the TV.
“To me it should be your body of work,” Ford said. “They talk about your last 10 games or who’d you beat in the top 25. You may beat 10 people in the top 25 at the beginning of the year and they may be out of the top 25 now. I think it’s an absurdity.”
The flaw in taking the last 12 games, which was changed from 10 last year, is that records show a strong finish doesn’t translate into a strong NCAA Tournament run. From 2002-06, among teams seeded to reach the Sweet 16 but didn’t make it, 17 finished 8-2 or better and 17 were 7-3 or worse.
Yet Syracuse, which likely would make the tournament today, nevertheless could get knocked out by a brutal final stretch of games. While the Orange opened Big East play against also-rans Seton Hall, South Florida, DePaul and Rutgers, it closes against Villanova twice, Connecticut, Georgetown, St. John’s, Cincinnati, Rutgers and Marquette.
“As far as the last 10 games, surely, I’d think they’d look at that situation,” said Billy Gillispie, coach of Kentucky, another bubble team. “You could have seven on the road, three at home or three on the road and seven at home.”
There’s also the argument that some of the monster conferences are eating their own. Notre Dame entered the season ranked seventh nationally and has likely been knocked off the bubble by the cannibalism of the mighty Big East.
Then again, maybe Notre Dame has only itself to blame. Joe Lunardi runs the communications department at Saint Joseph’s University but since 1995 he has been best known for running ‘s pretty-accurate Bracketology projection of the NCAA Tournament as the season winds down. He doesn’t think teams from power leagues should complain when their bubbles burst.
“It cuts both ways,” Lunardi said Thursday. “When you’re in a league like the Big East, you also have far greater opportunities to prove your worthiness for the tournament. Some teams might get two or three games like that a year. (Big East teams) get it every night.”
He also doesn’t buy the stodgy opinion that a 17-10 Maryland team is more tournament-worthy than, say, a 22-7 Siena from the — here’s your answer — Metro Atlantic.
“What you’re generally getting is a very, very, very consistent mid- major versus an inconsistent major,” Lunardi said. “When you play 30 to 35 games and you’re winning one, losing one, winning two, losing one, losing two, winning one, there’s rarely a transformation overnight to become consistent.”
While so much can happen in two weeks and so many questions will be asked, Oklahoma State’s point guard, Byron Eaton, may have the best answer for them all.
“As long as we keep winning,” he said, “it’ll take care of itself.”
NCAA Tournament: An early glance
Midmajor conferences represented by team currently in first place or, in case of tie, highest RPI. Note: RPI and strength of schedule (SOS) numbers as of Saturday.
AMERICA EAST
Who’s in: Binghamton
ATLANTIC 10
Who’s in: Xavier
ATLANTIC COAST
Who’s in: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech
On the bubble: • Maryland (17-10, 6-7). RPI 58, SOS 23. Won four of last nine. Big wins: North Carolina, Michigan State. Big losses: Morgan State. Remaining: at North Carolina State today, Wake Forest on Tuesday, at Virginia on Saturday.
• Miami (16-10, 6-8). RPI 44, SOS 10. Last 10: 4-6. Big wins: Florida State, Wake Forest. Big losses: None. Remaining: at Georgia Tech on Wednesday, North Carolina State on Saturday.
ATLANTIC SUN
Who’s in: Jacksonville
BIG 12
Who’s in: Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas
On the bubble:
• Oklahoma State (19-9, 8-6). RPI 34, SOS 16. Last 10: 6-4. Big wins: Siena, Texas. Big losses: None. Remaining: Kansas State on Tuesday, at Oklahoma on Saturday.
• Texas A&M (21-8, 7-7). RPI 35, SOS 33. Last 10: 6-4. Big wins: Louisiana State, Oklahoma State, Texas. Big losses: None. Remaining: at Colorado on Wednesday, Missouri on Saturday.
• Kansas State (20-9, 8-6). RPI 76, SOS 94. Last 10: 8-2. Big wins: Missouri, Texas. Big losses: Iowa, at Oregon. Remaining: at Oklahoma State on Tuesday, Colorado on Saturday.
BIG EAST
Who’s in: Connecticut, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia
On the bubble:
• Cincinnati (18-10, 8-7). RPI 51, SOS 22. Last nine: 6-3. Big wins: UNLV, West Virginia. Big losses: None. Remaining: at Syracuse today, at South Florida on Tuesday, Seton Hall on Saturday.
• Providence (17-11, 9-7). RPI 71, SOS 36. Last 10: 5-5. Big wins: Syracuse, Pittsburgh. Big losses: Northeastern. Remaining: at Rutgers today, at Villanova on Thursday.
BIG SKY
Who’s in: Weber State.
BIG SOUTH
Who’s in: Radford.
BIG TEN
Who’s in: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin
On the bubble:
• Penn State (20-9, 9-7). RPI 63, SOS 84. Last 10: 6-4. Big wins: at Illinois, at Michigan State, Purdue. Big losses: Rhode Island. Remaining: Illinois on Wednesday, at Iowa on Saturday.
• Michigan (17-11, 8-8). RPI 46, SOS 11. Last 10: 5-5. Big wins: UCLA, Duke, Illinois, Purdue. Big losses: at Iowa. Remaining: at Wisconsin today, at Minnesota on Saturday.
BIG WEST
Who’s in: Cal State Northridge
COLONIAL ATHLETIC
Who’s in: Virginia Commonwealth
CONFERENCE USA
Who’s in: Memphis
HORIZON
Who’s in: Butler
IVY
Who’s in: Cornell
METRO ATLANTIC
Who’s in: Siena
MID-AMERICAN
Who’s in: Buffalo
MISSOURI VALLEY
Who’s in: Creighton
MOUNTAIN WEST
Who’s in: Utah, Brigham Young, UNLV
On the bubble: • San Diego State (17-8, 9-5). RPI 54, SOS 60. Last nine: 5-4. Big wins: Utah. Big losses: at Wyoming. Remaining: CSU on Wednesday, UNLV on Saturday.
NORTHEAST
Who’s in: Robert Morris
OHIO VALLEY
Who’s in: Tennessee-Martin
PACIFIC 10
Who’s in: Washington, Arizona State, California, UCLA
On the bubble: • Arizona (18-11, 8-8). RPI 49, SOS 39. 7-3 last 10. Big wins: Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington, at UCLA. Big losses: at Stanford. Remaining: California on Thursday, Stanford on Saturday.
• USC (16-12, 7-9). RPI 53, SOS 13. Last 10: 4-6. Big wins: Arizona State, California. Big losses: Seton Hall, at Oregon State, at Stanford. Remaining: Oregon on Thursday, Oregon State on Saturday.
PATRIOT
Who’s in: American
SOUTHEASTERN
Who’s in: Louisiana State, South Carolina, Tennessee
On the bubble:
• Kentucky (19-10, 8-6). RPI 61, SOS 73. Last 10: 4-6. Big wins: Tennessee twice, West Virginia. Big losses: Virginia Military, at Mississippi, at Vanderbilt. Remaining: Georgia on Wednesday, at Florida on Saturday.
• Florida (21-7, 8-5). RPI 41, SOS 95. Last nine: 5-4. Big wins: Washington, South Carolina. Big losses: at Georgia. Remaining: Tennessee today, at Miss. State on Wednesday, Kentucky on Saturday.
SOUTHERN
Who’s in: Davidson
SOUTHLAND
Who’s in: Stephen F. Austin
SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC
Who’s in: Alabama State
SUMMIT
Who’s in: North Dakota State
SUN BELT
Who’s in: Western Kentucky
WEST COAST
Who’s in: Gonzaga
WESTERN ATHLETIC
Who’s in: Utah State
John Henderson, The Denver Post
