Rochambeau! In the game of Rox-paper-scissors, the Rockies must be the clinched fist this season.
If not, another year is lost, a manager is gone, more players are traded and more fans are disenchanted.
The team’s best offseason addition won’t play at all.
The team’s worst offseason subtraction will play against the Rockies three times.
And by my birthday (June 27), we will know if they are rock-solid or paper-thin, or if they are just running with scissors.
A couple of weeks ago, behind the batting cage at Rockies spring training in Tucson, I asked Don Baylor:
“Does it seem different from when you left?”
He replied caustically: “You’re still here.”
This is where we came in. Baylor was the Rockies’ first manager in 1993. In retrospect, he was the Rockies’ first-class manager. He and his teams overachieved those first six years of the franchise. By the third season, they won 10 more games than they lost and advanced to the National League playoffs. In both of the next two seasons, the Rockies won 83 games. Even in his final season, before the firing, Baylor managed a 77-85 record.
Last season the Rockies won 74. In eight of the 10 seasons since Baylor went elsewhere to coach, manage, battle cancer and watch the game from afar, the Rockies have won fewer than 77. They have won more than 83 just once.
So his comeback is appreciated — by Baylor and the Rockies.
Every day at camp another player — a Todd Helton (who played under Baylor) or a Dexter Fowler (who is not old enough to have seen Baylor play) — says the 59-year-old hitting coach has adjusted and improved his swing. Helton and Fowler are hitting over .300.
Baylor’s presence will make a difference this season.
Matt Holliday’s absence will make a bigger difference.
Holliday was the abrasion- ed face of the Rockies in 2007 after his slide. Now he’s been jettisoned. The ex-face will face the Rox in Oakland on June 26-28, when we will know who the Rockies really are.
In the Rockies’ 2009 “information guide,” a chock-full 464 pages, Holliday’s name is mentioned for the first time on page 253. In 2008, “with 25 home runs, (Brad Hawpe) would finish as one of three Rockies, along with Matt Holliday (25) and Garrett Atkins (21), to hit at least 20 home runs.”
You’re dismissed, Matt.
Less is being made of Holliday’s exit than who will be the Rockies’ fifth starter. Since Baylor became the manager, the Rockies have used at least 50 fifth starters. There will be at least a half-dozen fifth starters this year.
More should be made about the Rockies’ first four starters.
More should be made about the Rockies’ power, their hope of pushing the Dodgers (with the No. 1 everyday lineup in the National League), their offensive effort to reduce strikeouts and improve run production, and their pitching effort to reduce walks and improve run-prevention.
To be stone-solid, the Rockies have to get:
• High-teen victory totals from both Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez — and no extended stays on the injured list.
• An exceptional season from Jason Marquis. He could be the Rockies’ most important offseason acquisition, more so than Baylor. The Marquis de Sod has won as many as 14 in 2006 (but lost 16). He holds the key to the city’s baseball aspirations in 2009.
• A consistent closer — Manuel Corpas or Huston Street, with Brian Fuentes- type save numbers.
• A quality season from wunderkind Troy Tulowitzki and an acceptance of his role as clubhouse leader.
• Helton back in form. He has been spot-on at the plate in spring training. He must stay healthy.
• Atkins, Hawpe and Ryan Spilborghs supplying the home runs, the runs batted in and the everyday play to make up for the loss of Holliday.
• Ian Stewart a spot in the lineup for 135 games — at third, in left and even at second base. Stewart can be a 20-80 hitter this season.
• A flashback to the brilliant defense of two seasons ago.
• A workmanlike performance from Seth Smith. He remains an uncertain unknown.
• Through the first 75 or so games. They open on the road April 6 at Arizona for three games, then come home to play Philadelphia for three. They’re back off to play at the Cubs, at the Dodgers and at the Diamondbacks. Nine home games in April. There’s a long trip in May to Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Detroit and two more in June — to Houston, St. Louis and Milwaukee, followed by Los Angeles (Anaheim) Angels, Oakland (which won’t be a holiday against Holliday) and back to Los Angeles (Dodgers). It’s not as if the Rockies will be playing Hostess Ding Dongs. And they end the season with three games against the Dodgers, the division favorites, in L.A.
Rocktober or Rocktimber? The Rockies cry out for a Baylor upside season — 83 victories — not another Clint Hurdle downside season — 73 or 74 victories. I think 79.
People in Colorado want to believe in the Rockies. The Rockies have to give them something to believe in. Rox over paper and scissors.
Woody Paige: 303-954-1095 or wpage@denverpost.com
