WASHINGTON — Reports on construction spending, manufacturing and pending home sales suggest the recession may be closer to a bottom.
But most analysts think the low point is months away, with more bad news likely before the economy stabilizes.
“I think the best that can be said right now is that the pace of decline has slowed, but we are still heading down,” said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s in New York. “Any recovery is still a work in progress.”
Wyss predicted that the recession, already the longest in a quarter-century, will last until September. But he said the decline in the gross domestic product in the current April-June quarter will probably be half the 6.3 percent drop recorded in the final three months of last year.
The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that construction spending dropped 0.9 percent in February, the fifth straight monthly decline but less than the expected 1.5 percent decrease.
Meanwhile, a trade group’s survey showed the manufacturing sector in March shrank for the 14th straight month.
The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 36.3 last month from 35.8 in February. Even with the small increase, the index is well below the reading of 50 that is the line between growth and recession. The index hit a 28- year low of 32.9 in December.
The National Association of Realtors said pending home sales rebounded in February from a record low.
