WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy, which was showing tentative early signs of a recovery, faces a potentially grave new threat: swine flu. A widespread outbreak could batter the tourism, food and transportation industries in particular, deepening the recession in the United States and possibly worldwide.
With the U.S. and the global economies already fragile, another severe blow could reverse any prog ress made in easing the recession.
Simon Johnson, former chief economist to the International Monetary Fund and a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management, envisions only a “small hit” to economic activity in the U.S. — a few tenths of 1 percentage point.
But if the problem in the U.S. persists for months, spreads broadly and leads to widespread flu cases or deaths, the damage could be more severe. It could delay an economic recovery well into 2010, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s .
