CHISINAU, Moldova — A leading exit poll predicted that pro-Europe parties will win enough combined votes to defeat Moldova’s ruling Communist Party in national elections Wednesday — raising the likelihood that the impoverished ex-Soviet republic will move closer to the West.
The poll by the Institute for Public Politics projected that four center-right opposition parties won 54.9 percent of the vote in parliamentary balloting widely seen as a referendum on whether to linger in Russia’s loose orbit or edge toward the European Union.
It said President Vladimir Voronin’s Communists — who have held power since 2001 — were trailing with 40.5 percent.
The institute said the poll was based on interviews with about 17,000 voters in 200 polling stations across Moldova. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Alexandru Tanase, deputy chairman of one of the opposition blocs — the Liberal Democratic Party — confirmed that all four would negotiate on the formation of an alliance.
“The conclusion is that the Communist Party lost the elections after an exhausting campaign where there were enormous pressures not just on the political parties but also on the ordinary people,” he said.
If official results confirm the projections, the opposition would be in a position to form a government if they forge an alliance, but they still might have to negotiate with the Communists on a successor to Voronin.
Parties need to win at least 5 percent of the vote to earn a place in the 101-seat Parliament. Three parties failed to do so, meaning their votes would be redistributed — a move that likely will boost the opposition’s vote haul.
With 39 percent of the vote counted, the Communists and the opposition bloc were running neck and neck, but many ballots still had not been tallied in Chisinau, the capital, where opposition support runs higher.
Voronin criticized the exit pollsters, suggesting they were criminals, and he urged Moldovans to “be patient, attentive and disciplined and wait for the results.” Moldova has been in political paralysis since April parliamentary elections sparked violent protests, with the opposition claiming that vote had been rigged by the government.
At least three people were killed and hundreds of others arrested after protesters — some of whom used the social network Twitter to organize after cellphone networks went down — stormed Parliament and the president’s office after the April vote.
A pro-Europe victory would move Moldova closer to the EU and NATO.
It also would help Moldova repair relations with neighboring Romania. Voronin accused Romania of trying to overthrow his government during April 7 riots, and Moldova subsequently imposed visa requirements on Romanians. Moldova was part of Romania until 1940 and gained its independence after the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union.
